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S Arabia ignores OPEC call
NICOSIA. Nov 22: Saudi Arabia, ignoring OPEC calls for a big cut tn oil output, is projecting bright prospects for world demand during the first half of 1992 despite concern over resumed Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil exports, reports Reuter.
OPEC delegation sources said on Wednesday that the world » biggest oil exporter, at a meeting of economists from Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries In Vienna last week, also rejected gloomy forecasts of crumbling demand after the northern hemisphere winter.
Rejecting an Iranian compromise, Saudi experts had told their colleague* in OPEC's Economic Commission Board (ECB) they projected world demand to reach 25.2 million Barrels Per Day (BPD)— the highest in a decade- during the first quarter of next year, the sources said.
The Saudis are very bullish on demand," one source said, referring to the kingdom's moderating influence on prices, which are currently around OPEC’s reference of 21 Dollars per barrel.
"It is also a clear signal to all that Saudi Arabia will not cut output drastically next year and bear the brunt of allowing Iraqi and Kuwaiti crudes back," another source added.
The kingdom also expects the call on OPEC crude* to average around 23.4 million BPD during the second quarter of next year, forecasting a stock build-up of between 700,000 to one million BPD.
The Saudi estimates for both quarters were OPEC's highest, one source and revealing figures compiled by the ECB ahead of the group's biannual ministerial meeting In Vienna next week.
The Saudi first quarter projection is the same as that made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) earlier this month. But the Paris based west's oil watchdog foresaw demand falling by around 2.5 million to 22.7 million BPD during the second quarter.
The sources said the Saudi argument was that OPEC would be unable to meet winter demand and that consumer* would have to compensate any shortages from their inventories.
With OPEC producing flat out. the Saudis expect destocking to be no less than one million BPD during the second quarter, a Oulf Arab delegate said.
Gulf industry sources expect the Vienna meeting to vote for rollover during the first quarter of 1992 of the September agreement which set a ceiling of 23.65 million for the fourth quarter. A Reuter survey showed OPEC produced around 23.7 million In October.
What interests OPEC ministers more is the Saudi plan for the second and third quarter of next year amid indications the kingdom would not cut output markedly.
Some ministers fearing a price collapse next spring, have called for a contingency plan to cut output to allow for a smooth return of Iraqi and Kuwaiti crudes.