IT to widely accepted that tobacco la one of the most profitable cash crops tn both developed and developing countries and that, menu rather than competes with food productton. given that tobacco, on a global basis, occupies a relatively small area of land. For the individual farmer, thia means a higher net Income per unit of land from tobacco than from such crops are wheat and maiac. even tho ugh tobacco is a very

Tobacco is of prime benefit to small land holders. It Is also plojnnent and* is generally a more reliable source of foreign exchange than most other commodities The fact has long been recognised by policy makers as tobacco generated income is an important source of revenue for local, regional and. in some countries, national development. Furthermore. as many small tobacco farmers are self-sufficient, to some degree the cash earned from tobacco goes directly to the providers of goods and services. Consequently, income from tobacco is .Indirectly very Important to the village, the district and ultimately the region where It is produced.

Because of its high labour requirements tobacco has been Instrumental in stemming the flow of unemployed and underemployed people from rural to urban areas. As a consequence. tobacco is frequently seen as a means to partially alleviate the social and economic problems, associated with surplus rural labour which currently beset many developing countries.

Tobacco cultivation, which demands sound farming practices, has also been an e ffective way of introduction crop husbandry techniques which ultimately benefit other cash and food crops. Compared to most other crops, returns from tobacco tend to be more stable and this, linked to guaranteed market outlets and assured sale price levels, results in a greater degree of certainty and

thus of security than is often the case with most other alternatives.

In purely economic and agronomic terms, tobacco production can be said to have many tangible benefits not only for those who grow it. but also to the overall economy.

The World Health Organisation has recently asked for studies from other relevant UN agencies to investigate crop diversification programmes. particularly tn countries whose economies depend significantly on tobacco production At the mo ment such a switch seems to be out of the question given that world tobacco production and consumption have been projected by FAO to increase at an overage annual rate of some 2 per cent, through to the year 2000. Therefore, it to unlikely that farmers will have the Incentive to curtail tobacco production whilst demand is expected to remain buoyant during the current decade. At a more practical level, farmers will continue to produce tobacco whilst it remains profitable.

Market Factors

It is often stated that on purely technical, grounds there are many opportunities for farmers to diversify away from tobacco. However, when economic and market conditions arc taken Into account, the position to somewhat different. For instance, a move to other crops is greatly influenced by topography, climate, soils, crop husbandry techniques and, for many alternative crops, the availability of irrigation facilities. Moreover, to evaluate the Impact of tobacco crop substitution, it is necessary ,o ascertain the effect it would have on farm income qnd on rural employment, taking into account the fact that tobacco. In both developed and developing coun-

tries. is mainly produced on small family farms.

The removal of tobacco from the farming system would require it to be replaced by a crop or crop mix capable of generating a similar income to preserve the farm's viability. Although some crops do produce a higher gross margin than tobacco, it to erroneous to think that farmers could sim-Sreplace tobacco with other

i value crops. First, high e crops such as fruit and

investment In equipment, which would probably be beyond the means of many small farmers Second, and of greater relevance, is the fact that the existing marketing channels for such crops would face severe problems in find a outlets for large additional

mes. Furthermore, substantial additional supplies placed on the market would more than likely have a regressive effect on prices : as a result, the livelihood of existing producers would be threatened.

Despite these factors, both fruit and vegetables could be grown in developed countries by a proportion of farmers who currently grow tobacco, if the appropriate financial assistance for investment and mar-Iketing purposes were available. However, it to obvious that any large-scale switch from tobacco to other high-value ctrops would have a disruptive influence leading to unstable market conditions and a subsequent fall tn prices of these crops.

In areas where the terrain sells and climate are unsuitable fo r producing other high-value crops, tobacco farmers are left with a limited choice of alternatives — none of which comes ne.»r to matching the revenue derived from tobacco or of providing the same employment opportunities.

A further restriction is often the high degree of frag mentation of farms with fields widely dispersed This clearly restricts mechanisation and thus, to a great extent, determines what crops can be grown This problem Is further Increased in hill and semi mountainous terrain In which, for Instance, a significant pro portion of tobacco to produced tn Greece and Italy. In the higher elevations, in these countries, the only real alternative to livestock production : a change that would involve farm amalgamation and a substantial Investment in buildings to house the livestock during the winter months.

Sustainable alternatives?

In developing countries, the prospects of changing to other crops, which might generate equivalent financial returns to tobacco, are even bleaker and any changes are hampered by a general lack of Information on production options and their subsequent effect on farming systems. The available evidence suggests that there ap-

pear to be few. if any, crops which could currently provide farmers with the income they

for those presently engaged In its production, employment opportunities.

It to apparent that most theoretically possible high value crops such as fruit. vegetables and cut flowers have limited and non-sustainable marketing possibilities and Increased production of tea. coffee and sugar to Inhibited by International quotas which virtually determine the amount a country can produce. These

crops, however, are already and If there were to be any Increased production it would be on existing estates and to land and the necessary resources to enable them to Increase output Consequently, increased production quotas of these commodities would be of 1H tie benefit to small scale tobacco farmers.

For those who advocate a curtailment of tobacco produc lion, crop diversification seems the obvious answer. However, a switch to other

crops and farm enterprises, even if they appear to initially realise the equivalent financial returns, is fraught with many socio-economic problems A : the moment, few, if any, tobacco farmers are likely to 1

and farm-age prices subsequently fan then market forces will ensure that farmers produce other crops or derive an income from other farm activities. Policy markers tn major tobacco producing countries need to be made aware that any substantial reduction In tobacco production will cause a decline In

a amskKnlng of the agricultural and managerial skllla that

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