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Balance of Terror Still Reigns Despite Cuts

President George Bush won kudos around the world for his unilateral move in September to cut US tactical nuclear weapons. Within days, President Mikhail Gorbachev responded in kind. Despite the fanfare over cuts, there has been little discussion of the massive nuclear arsenals still in place.

by Daya Kishan Thussu
IN what has been billed the first act of unilateral nuclear disarmament since the nuclear age began in 1945. United States President George Bush* announced sweeping cuts In his country's vast nuclear
His September proposals reflected a fundamental re-evaluation of American defence policy in the post-Cold War era They will see the US remove all tactical nuclear weapons from submarines and warships and withdraw all its short-range nuclear weapons from Europe.
Bush's announcement generated widespread surprise and was a great public rela Uons triumph. Observers were asking whether it was timed with an eye on this year's Nobel Peace Prize and next year's US election!
But critics of the US initiative say Bush's real aim is' to reduce the most advanced Soviet nuclear programmes while maintaining the main elements of his own government's "strategic modernisation" proposals.
For instance. Bush has called on Moscow to eliminate its SS-18 multi-warhead missiles. the main strength of the Soviet nuclear force, while leaving intact the US's own three-pronged Triad force of bombers, submarines and Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).
In addition. Bush has not halted development of the B-2 Stealth bomber or the controversial Strategic Defence Initiative project known as Star Wars.
Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev responded to Bush's initiative by announcing that Moscow will eliminate nuclear
artillery shells and nuclear warheads from all its tactical missiles
Gorbachev also promised to destroy some nuclear-equipped surface-to-air mis-
. siles and pull all of them back |)from battle-ready forces to" ^central bases.
n With the Soviet Union apparently on the verge of disin-legration. Gorbachev has sized the moment to announce the cuts while he is still in control of the country's nuclear policy. He Justifies the moves by saying they are in line with the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed tn July.
Gorbachev has also announced a moratorium on Soviet nuclear tests. This may have been prompted by the decision of the president of Kazakhstan. Nursultan Nazarbayev. to shut down test sites in the centra! Asian republic.
Bush's proposals were undoubtedly influenced by a realisation that negotiated disarmament would be much caster while the Soviet nuclear arsenal was still under the
Kremhn s exclusive control.
With the weakening of Moscow's authority, and delay tn disarmament could lead to a proliferation of new nuclear powers in the newly assertive republics, whose nuclear ambitions the US wants to keep tn check.
Already. Kazakhstan and Ukraine have opposed a suggestion by Boris Yeltsin, president of the Russian Federation, that all former Soviet nuclear weapons be concentrated in Russia.
The Bush administration has urged the Soviet Union to make radical cuts in its huge nuclear arsenal so as to revitalise its ailing civil economy.
Omitted from Bush's disarmament proposals are the air-launched tactical nuclear weapons based in Europe. That omission could lead to a dispute with Germany, which has resisted any increase in foreign nuclear presence on its soil, particularly since the decline of communism in the Eastern bloc.
Under Bush's programme
some 1.400 US nuclear bombs will remain on British and German airfields, and an estimated 5.440 nuclear warheads will stay aboard US ballistic submarines.
Moreover, the US proposals do not address the Issue of British and French nuclear ca parity
In recent years Britain has Increased the number of nuclear warheads on its submarine fleet from 128 warheads to 512.
For their part, the French now possess an estimated 600 warheads and their new submarines and air-launched missiles are expected to have more than 1.500 warheads by the late Nineties.
Moscow wants Britain and France to join any superpower disarmament negotiations. But both Britain and France have insisted that their nuclear stockpiles are too insignificant to warrant their joining in any global round of disarmament.
Nonetheless, it is estimated that,present armament plans will see Britain and France in control of more than 2.000 warheads by 1995. By that time the US and Soviet Union will have an estimated 10.000 warheads In their arsenals.
French President Francois Mitterrand has called for nuclear disarmament talks among the US. the Soviet Union. Britain and France. But it is difficult to imagine how any meaningful global disarmament could be achieved without the participation of
China, the world s other major nuclear power.
China has welcomed the US-Soviet disarmament Initiatives. But It* leaders have been silent on the Implications of those moves for Its own strategic arsenal of 12 Inter-continental and 60 medium-range nuclear missiles.
In the past China has indicated that It would be ready to negotiate nuclear disarmament only when the other superpowers have achieved a 50-per-cent reduction in their nuclear capabilities.
The West is delighted at the Soviet nuclear cut*, coming as they did eight days after Bush's proposals.
Still, Gorbachev may be able to take some credit for the Bush initiatives. He can argue the US moves came In response to his own "New Thinking" in foreign policy, a fundamental shift in strategy for which he was awarded the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize
However, much work remains to be done before Gorbachev's vision of a neclear-weapons-free world by the year 2000 can be realised.
A total nuclear lest ban would promote disarmament and improve the chances of implementing the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPTJ now signed by 142 countries. But both the US and Britain oppose such a ban.
Unless the big nuclear powers drastically reduce their combined arsenal many new members will want to Join their exclusive club, and the capacity for Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) that has haunted our age will continue to dominate global strategic thinking. — GEMINI NEWS
DAYA KISH AN THUSSU ts Associate Editor of Gemini News Service.