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OLD CONCERNS, NEW SIGNALS

Country Awaits a New Agenda for Development
STRONG signals ore bring 10 >*"»« ladcah by donor nattona and aid agencies, which, on the one hand. redact their aaaurances of aupport for the democratically-elecled government and, on the other, underscore their concern at the alow pace in the formulation of a new agenda for development for the country.
in recent weeks, thcae atgnala hare come at the meetinga of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). held in Bangkok, and during the visit of a high level delegation of the European Economic Community (EEC). led by the noted development expert. JP Pronk of the Netherlands
In a different context, the subjoct also cropped up at the Commonwealth Summit at Harare, where British Prime Mlntater John Major announced Ills government's decision to write off nearly Sone billion debt owed to the United Kingdom by some of the poorest nations, but reaffirmed that henceforth his country’s aid would be linked to the record of a recipient country tn good government, economic management and human rights. Observers here say that the British leader brought up these Issues In his bilateral discussion with Prime Minister Khaleda Zia al the Zimbabwean capital.
Last but not the least, there will be a discus a ton on all these issues, in a broad academic context, at a seminar opening tn Lahore. Pakistan later this week. Organised under the auspices of IMF. the discussion will centre on 'Structural Adjustments" as proposed by IMF and WB. which cover controversial conditional! Ues urged by the two Washington-baaed aid agencies. Governor of the Bangladesh Bank. SB Chaudhury will be representing the country at this seminar.
Generally speaking, government leaders have mixed feelings about these signals, feelings which arc shared by non-official experts and members of the private sector, who also held talks with the Pronk mission
In the first place, If officials lake comfort from the assurance, offered by both WB and EEC
officials. that aid to East European countries and the Soviet Unton would not lead to a reduction of aaeiatance 'to the poorest nations like Bangladesh.' they also note, with some dismay, an Indication from an important source of aid that, a ceiling has nearly been reached on the volume of International assistance received by Dhaka and that, in future, a possible Increase may be only minimal.
Again, the assurance that new demands placed on aid sources by East European countries and the Soviet Union would not affect the assistance to the poorest countries in Asia and Africa ts treated with some reservations by experts here. After all. no one yet knows how much funds aid agencies and Industrialised na
What causes further concern to officials here is sn Insistence by aid agencies and leading donor nations that any Increase of sid to a country like Bangladesh would be linked to the gov ernment's implementation of conditional!Ues of the WB and IMF. At the same time, there would be much closer scrutiny of the government's economic performance than ever carried out in the past.
'It will be a new ball game altogether," said an economic expert here the other day. "We will be placed in a take-ft-or-leave-It situation.'
This may well be an extreme view If there is more flexibility In the Implementation of conditionalities — a message heard from the recent Commonwealth Finance Ministers Meeting in
to aflXwela; Mad^serond^r. whether the new gov
'development** oZagro-based industries which alone can raise the purchasing power of the rural population, in its planning strategy.
On these issues, there appear* hardly much disagreement between vi.iting expert* and local one*, except In emphasis and details For instance, at thia moment, heads of trade bodies of industries, lack of access to credit, smuggling scross the border and Inconsistencies In the privatisation programme than with the grassroot development of the kind promoted by the Grameen Bank and BRAC
Discussions with WB officials In Bangkok, with member* of the EEC delegation in Dhaka and with Commonwalth leader* in Harare have probably convinced our pobey-makera that there are no simplistic solutions to our problems and that a new agenda for development must be carefully drawn up to deal with our old concerns In a complex global aid environment. If one cannot talk about passing on only the losing industries to the private sector, tt Is also absurd to make a case for a wholesale or an across-the-board privatisation of the main sector* of the economy of Bangladesh. Last but not the least, one cannot suggest that Bangladesh — or any other developing country — should copy any model for development, such as the four dragons of East Asia — or assume that a massive export-oriented growth atone will put the country on the road to progress.
In the end, tt is all s question of designing s package of policies, a package that meets the unique and pressing needs of the country. It should be put together by our own officials and leaders, through a series of consultations with other players on the scene. In such an exercise. Interaction with aid agencies, especially with experts like Dr Pronk, would be an essential positive factor, provided we can draw the line between advice and dictation.