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DHAKA: 2000 A.D. AND BEYOND

A Future Urban Black Hole or a Livable World City?
***The population of Dhaka theoretically would be over 11 million in 2000 A.D. Even a much more moderate overall growth rate of 4.5 per cent presents 9 million in the year 2000. Can this urban population growth be moderated by some intervention, direction planning and investment?
THE population of major urban centres in many developing countries are virtually exploding. This is more critical in some of the more heavily populated countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico etc... With the current growth rates continuing, some of the major urban centres in these and similar countries could double every 10 to 15 years.
The population of Bangladesh at liberation (1971) was approximately 75 million. The urban population was approximately 7% of the total. Today the estimate for the total population is anywhere between 110 and 115 million. An increase of 35 to 40 million (50% growth) In barely 20 years. The Urban Population Is estimated between 12% and 15% of the total. Which means that while the total population is growing between 2.5% to 2.8% the urban population Is growing at a much faster rate. What will the year 2000 AD bring for the country? 140 million people? 150 million? Even at 2.5 overall rate of growth the population could stand over 150 million and growing how many of this will crowd into the urban areas like Dhaka? This, in a small country of barely 55,000 square miles, of which a significant are is taken over by crisscrossing large rivers.
The population of Dhaka, the new national capital and the principal urban centre in 1971 was approximately 1.7 million In the metropolitan area. Today the metropolitan region is virtually merged with Narayanganj to the south Savar to the north-west and Tongl to the north. The combined population is 6 million. The urban growth rate is estimated close to 6.5% per annum (a combination of urban birth rate, 2.5% allowed and rural to urban migration rate of 4.0%). At this rapid uninterrupted rate the population of Dhaka could double every ten years.. The population of Dhaka theoretically would be over 11 million in 2000 AD and over 20 million in 2010 AD. Even a much more moderate overall growth rate of 4.5% (1.5% birth rate and 3.0% rural migration) presents 9 million in the year 2000 A D and 14 million in 2010 AD. While the second figures are very optimistic, they would still present major Issues and problems.
Could these scenarios be true? Look at Mexico City (population 18 million). Look at Sao Paulo (population 15 million). Keep watching Cairo. Jakarta, Bombay and a number of major third world cities. In fact the number of major urban centres in the world having 5 million or more population will grow from 35 in 1985 to over 95 by 2025 AD. While in the developed countries it will only change from 11 in 1985 to 13 during the same period. By far the bulk of growth will therefore come from the rapidly growing third world cities. However, what happens to a city and Its environment when it grows from 2 million to 6 million in 20 years, and may be to 18 million in another 20 years? Some we know, others are only matters of conjecture. Urban planners, economists or demographers can hardly predict the scenarios with certainty or absolute accuracy Decause mere is no city in the 20-25 million range to day. But we already have some ideas. The picture does not look very good to say the least. A few cities of the world are beginning to find out what it is to plan, administer, live, grow and die in cities having more than 15 million people (Mexico City, Sao Paulo etc). Even with enormously more resources Invested or planned than Bangladesh can ever afford, these urban megalopolis are becoming almost impossible to administer, operate and provide for. Do we in Bangladesh realize where we are heading? What are our options? How can we cope with the emerging situations? What policy, planning and imple-mental directions should we be following?
• What implications will a population of 10 million plus by 2000 AD and possibly 25 to 30 million by 2025 AD have, on a rapidly growing massive urban centre like Dhaka?
• Can this urban population growth and physical urban exsome intervention, direction planning or investment?
• What kind of planning, policies and resource commitments may moderate the Impact of the emerging situation?
We have ignored this long enough. We can only ignore it any further only at our future peril.
The growth of Dhaka as a rapidly expanding centre of population following the libera-5 tion has been noted in the tn-
2 troduction. In 1950, Dhaka
1 had a base population of
o 250,000 approximately. It was
a spread over an area 30 sq.
2 miles. By 1961, the population
3 of the municipal area had risen to 561,000, while the city had spread to 56 sq. miles in area. At that point, Dhaka as a metropolitan areas was still distinctly separate from the nearby Narayanganj to the south and there was hardly any development to the north.
However, by 1971 the population had grown rapidly to over a million and half. New urban areas had started to grow in the north - west tn the form of Savar. In the north and north -cast new upper class residential subdivisions of Gulshan, Banani, Uttara, Badda etc. had started to emerge. Further to the north, the Industrial town of Tongi was. beginning- to emerge some 15 miles from the downtown centre of the previously ne^ly developed Motljheel Commercial Area.
By late 1980's, the far flung and previously separated urban areas such as commercial and mercantile Savar, Narayanganj and industrial Tongi had started to merge with the main urban body. I estimate It to be about 250 sp. miles today. Already a number of phenomenon had started to emerge.
• The city was spreading far and wide into previously untouched rural and prime agricultural lands.
• The expanded and newly created urban areas while Initially separate from the main urban (city) areas at the core, was beginning to merge in the form of unauthorised commercial linkages.
• Transportation and commuting has began to emerge as issues.
• Service infrastructures such water, sewer, storm drainage, electricity etc were being stretched thin.
It has reached a stage where the various urban issues have began to compound one another. Moreover, all of the urban expansion land came from encroached and annexed rural lands. Much of these were low lying lands which have also been filled with consequent severe drainage and flood water stagnation problems as was demonstrated by the recent floods.
As buildable and habitable urban lands became scarce and the lands values skyrocketed, in addition to encroaching on the surrounding low lying and rural lands most of the existing open spaces including low lying lands and open drainage canals (such as the Dholai Khal in the old city) was being filled up. This was not simply only an intensification of the existing land use but a drastic change in the existing ecological make up. The DI T has been greatly responsible for the annexation and filling up the surrounding low lying rural lands. This was to create upper class single family very low density residential subdivisions. (What a waste of valuable land! The effective densities varied from 4 units per acre to 10 units per acre (gross). The DIT missed a golden opportunity to do something creative and build between 50 to 80 units per acre, if they were at all required to annex these rural lands. If that was 5000 acres of land, at 50 units per acre, that could have provided enough space for 250,000 units and housed at least an additional 1,5000,000 people without further annexations. To house the same number of people at 10 units per acre would require 25000 acres of annexed land).
With the population of Dhaka (both from birth rate and rural / urban migration) continuing to grow unabated, the pressure for more and more urban expansion and internal land use intensification will continue In the foreseeable future. Further, we will see the polarity of land use problems as large unauthorised areas of slums in the inner city and high rise middle income housing begin lo coexist more and more
Question can be raised as to what will be the impact of this urban land expansion on ihe overall urban environment and how to moderate its growth. What are Its implications on the dwindling surrounding rural land and the land values. There is s tot of work that is to be done In these areas But we need a complete change in planning and development attitude from the current ones.
Housing and Urban
Development
After the liberation of Bangladesh (1971) there was a large influx of rural migrants to the Dhaka dty At the time. In the Planning Commission where I had recently joined, we estimated that approximately 250.000 people were urban squatters and slum dwellers of the City's total population of 1.7 million ap proximately (15% of the total population). Chart-4 shows annualized growth rate of 4.5%. It charts an 15% birth rale and a 3.0% rural Immtgra Uon It also shows three broad category of habitat tonal condl Hons i.e permanent type of housing, slum dwellers and shelterless street dwellers (and daily migrant workers which is not indicated) While the ratio of sium dwellers to the shelterless street dwellers projected may be debatable the magnitude of changes in the ratio of permanent type housing to the other two ktods Is Interesting to note
In 1985 the population of Dhaka was estimated to be about 4 million. Of this total approximately 75% or about 3 million people were thought to have some form of permanent shelter. About 25% or 1 million people were living in either shims or on the streets. Currently, the City is estimated lo be growing at about 6% to 6 5% Even If we consider a reduced growth rate of 4.5% the population of Dhaka would rise to about 9 million people by the year 2000 A D. However, we are hardly build Ing permanent housing anywhere close to the rate of population growth. In 15 years, even If we built at the rate of 15000 dwelling units per year that would account for only 225.000 dwelling units This under a household size of 6 people could provide perma nent shelter for only 1,350,000 people However, the population will have increased by 5 million (from 4 million to 9 million). This would leave out 3 65 million people without any permanent shelters Added to that will be the previous one million By the year 2000 AD over 4.5 rail Hon people In Dhaka could be living without any permanent shelters or daily migrants The availability of open land is de creasing rapidly in Dhaka proper Without available open spaces there would be less scope for physical expansions of shim settlements As s result
tton of the population would be what can be classed as street dwellers or dally workers from neighbouring rural or semi ru ral sreas This is because the shelter* available would be woefully inadequate for the Increase fn the projected population. By then (2000 A D) the proportion of permanent type dwelling residents will have dropped to less than 50% from 75% in IMS. A full 50% of the daily resident population without any permanent form of housing. Thl* would be an alarming situation to say the least. The situation Is not ex-pected to get any better there after as the chart shows. What will be the nature of urban character of Dhaka where more that half the population will not have any decent place to live?
RomU. Traffic, Maas TYanaportation ana mommy
Where do you start a section under the above heading ?
Ever since the city of Dhaka has been growing geographi cally, the network of roads and the transportation system has been progressively falling behind. Since the Ube ration the Increase In the expansion of road network and public mode for mass transportation has been minimal compared to the increase in total volume of people and the traffic to be moved Further, in the absence of a well developed mass transportation and transit system private rickshaw* have kt erally taken over the city streets At the same time with the increase tn some amount of private automobiles, buses, and commesclaJ and Indu* trad trucks the streets and the roads of Dhaka have become practically chocked.
By some estimates at thia time there are over one hundred thouaand rickshaws in the city of Dhaka While, the rickshaw is virtually environ mentally non polluting. and provide for the urban employ me nt of more than two nun dred the thousand people, it* down side can not be Ignored. In the absence of development of significant new road network, and mass transit, the rickshaws of Dhaka are practl cally chocking the nutter as well as other roads. The results are manyfold While the rickshaws are providing a basic transportation to many, the to tai traffic is stowed to a crawl, and moves mostly at speed of rickshaws in traffic jam. The whole traffic including the industrial and public buses and private buses mostly have to move at the speed of rickshaw* in the rush hour* and On major arterial road*. Mobility both for the public and the In dustrial and the service sector arc hostages to inadequate road network and roads crowded with rickshaws. It is a dally effort to move from any part of the city to another part some distances away. if this is the situation today, what kind situation can we expect when the population doubles or triples under twenty years, as it .hall?
Since the existing urban built up and the existing roads have taken up most of the urban areas, there Is not much room for new roads tn the ex fating sres without major surgery. We have to think about the future. Otherwise, in not too distant a future urban mobility will be a major headache. Let us start to think in some positive direction.
1. Regardless of Krban growth, development and intensification of the land use, we have to create a network and hierarchy of roads and traffic.
2. In the road network system. a system of arterial roads and urban highway and corridors should be created that will serve basically mass transit and transportation, like buses, Industrial and service transports like truck* and may be public auto carriers like taxis, and auto rickshaw*. These could link far flung part* of the city like Savar to NarayanganJ, Tongi to Motijheel and Savar to Tongi. There will have to be some urban bypass roods avoiding the heavily built up areas Slow moving and private veht cles should not be allowed on these roads.
3. A secondary system of existing and new road network should be created which would allow all motorised vehicle* only.
4. The lower rung of major road* should allow all type of vehicles with the exception of heavy Industrial traffic like truck*.
5. The lowest rung are the neighbourhood road* which should allow only private vehi ck-s. taxis, rickshaws and nicipal service vehicles.
Aside from the above which will need to be developed through a comprehensive and detailed planning and devel opment process a most impor tant element in the movement of massive number of people is a fully developed mass transit system unencumbered by the surface traffic. Almost every major western city has one such system or more. I am referring to either an under ground transit, or * surface rail for the fast moving of large volume of people from one end of the city to another. These are usually linked al various in termediate points by surface transportation system. True, an underground system is ex tremely capital intensive and technically difficult to achieve. But when you consider it benefits to the urban scene there can be little other option for large megalopolises. It is the only system capable of moving extremely large volume of people unencumbered by the surface traffic, and urban build up*. Since it la not going to be cheap, but Ite requirement essential to the mobility lo people the planning for it •hould start without delay
Potential Intervention
Scenario for the Future
To thia stage we have dis cussed at some length an emerging scenario on various sectors. The combination of the worst of all scenario is a picture of disaster waiting to happen. The question is, is it possible to change or moderate the scenario ? I believe that with out efforts disaster will happen. However, with maximum efforts the situation can be moderated and made livable until a stability reaches in the population growth and the rural migration is abated. It may take twenty, thirty, or even forty years but things can be made better with coordinated policy, implementation and total efforts. Let us review them sector by sector briefly before an overall prediction is made.
Population Growth and Urban Expansion
While urban population growth is related to number of other complex issues, with out going in to details, efforts should continue to
• First reduce the rate of urban growth through popula tion control through education •nd incentives to reduce family ■tees
• Secondly, diversify em pioyments and industries to other parts of the country so that there may be better options elsewhere as well perception of available employment in Dhaka Is minimised
■ Needless urban expansion in to surrounding rural areas is totally discouraged as official ^ULtosting urban land should be used in much more intensively in the form of mixed use high density devel opments of commercial and residential uses.
Housing and Urban Development
• Because urban influx of rural migrants will continue for the forceable future, and because adequate number of low income housing and shelters can not be built, provisions must be made to provide basic services like, clean tap water, power, roads and education must be provided to these unauthorised settle ments.
• Allocation of land for single family developments should stop.
• All future residential developments whether in the private or public domain should be development as medium to high density devel opments.
• To avoid ghettoisation of particular social or economic dlass these developments should always be of mixed tenancy. These should be part of son I ng regulation regarding the development of the land.
• Public housing policy must shift to provide large scale low to medium income housing mixed tn with private upper income projects to avoid ghettoisatton.
• Proper guidelines must be developed for the private sector high density developments
■ Intensification of existing housing and land use should continue as a policy, encouraging extensions and rebuilding of existing stock. However, these should be done under strict and enforceable rules and regulations.
• Financial incentives for intensification of existing housing and new multiple tenancy housing should be provided in the form of Interest rate subsidies for loans taken from private sector financial institutions.
• Government should stay away from providing large scale loans to private housing developments, but should encourage mixed income housing developments through other Incentives.
• For publically developed multiple housing, long term rent to purchase schemes should be Introduced.
• Various forms of cooperative housing should be developed, one in which members of housing cooperatives would jointly own a project.
• Other innovative forms of housing and financing for low and moderate income housing should be continually explored.
Roads. Traffic. Transportation and Mobility
• While the cyck- rickshaw Is a major part of transportation and traffic in Dhaka at present, in the future tn a city two, three times larger there has to be alternate and better methods of moving goods and people.
* Long term planning and development of an urban mass rapid transit system preferably underground is a must for the survival of the city.
• To move goods and ser vices as well as surface masses, creation of major arterial roads that would restrict slower moving vehicles should also be a priority
• A minimum standard should be set, narrower than which roads should never be built. Right now many neigh hourhood roads are only 12 feet wide. This kinds of planning and constructton should never be allowed
The understanding of the need to preserve Ecology (the balance in nature) and to reduce environmental pollution Is much a matter of public ed ucatton In any future planning and policy developments, a set of questions should always asked How much and tn what ways the new plans and poll cies effect the urban environment and can there be a better plan and policies to protect the environment and the pco Pk
(Abridged from a paper presented at a Seminar organ laed by Canada Bangladesh Forum, at the Carleton University. Canada, recently The author who la currently a resident of Ottawa and Is working as a Senior Architect with a major firm wm Deputy Chief of Physical Planning and Houalng. Planning Coaad-saton. Bangladesh