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Waiting — and still Waiting — for Castro to Go

Mohamed Hamaludin writes from Miami
THE collapse of the communist system tn Eastern Europe and in most of the Third World raised hopes among the more than one million Cuban exiles here and in the rest of the country that President Fidel Castro would also fall. A year later the collapse of Castro's communist administration has not materialised. ,
Ambitious plans, drawn up with the endorsement of the state of Florida and the federal government, assumed an early change of government in Havana and anticipated the benefits of a conversion from communism to capitalism.
But while the Castro regime has been badly buffeted by the winds of change that have blown through Europe and forced to impose severe austerity measures, it stays firmly In control.
In this city, which is dominated by Cuban exile politics, eager optimism has gradually reverted to the earlier belief that real change will take place In Cuba only after Castro is off the scene.
Thus, a flurry of activity last year premised on >hls imminent fall has given way to efforts to prepare for a Cuba after Caitro. That, it Is said, has been the topic of meetings between leading Cuban exile Jorge Mas Canosa and officials from Havana.
Mas Canosa, president of the influential Cuban America National Foundation, told the media he and colleagues had been in touch with Cuban officials "over the last two years with a substantial number of high-ranking Cuban government officials who are close to Castro."
Why this Information Is being made public only now is anybody's guess. It could be an effort to keep the vibrancy In exile politics at a time when disillusionment is creeping In.
The foundation also announced creation of a 23-member commission charged
with working out a blueprint to convert Cuba's economy to capitalism, said Mas Canosa. The group includes Arthur Laffer, a supply-side econofnist: William P. Clark, former national security adviser to President Ronald Reagan; Jeanne Kirkpatrick, former US ambassador to the United Nations, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the first Cuban American elected to Congress.
What Mas Canosa and his colleagues have not been dis-
cussing is why they believe that, living in the United States, they have a mandate to dictate the course of events in a post-Castro Cuba.
The foundation is essentially comprised of white
Cubans, while one result of Castro’s three-decades-old revolution Is that Afro-Cubans have moved into positions of influence In Cuba and into the socio-economic mainstream from which they were virtually locked out in the past
The general feeling In Miami is that Cubans at home are also aching for democratic reforms but that many will be hostile to those who fled during the hard times trying to go back and dictate events, or
trying to do so through remote control.
Mas Canosa even dealt specifically with the sale of government assets In a postCastro Cuba. That, he said, will bring In $15 billion.
There are other indications that the optimism for speedy change has been lowered. Florida's Secretary of Labour. Frank Scruggs, speaking at a university graduation in May. was careful to say: "Cuba will become free in this decade."
And even President George Bush seemed to be accepting the reality of Castro for some time to come in a message on May 20 marking Cuba's 89th independence anniversary. He called for "freedom and democracy, Mr Castro, not some time, not someday but
He added: "If Cuba holds fully free and fair elections under international supervision, respects human rights and stops subverting its neighbours. we can expect relations between our two countries to Improve significantly."
Havana studiously ignored the "challenge", as Bush called it. In fact, in recent months concern here in Miami and at the federal level has centred on what the press dubbed the "silent Mariel" — a reference to the increasing number of refugees who have made their way to South Florida in a matter of months.
Some 700 have come ashore so far this year on raffs, inner tubes and fishing boats, against 467 all last year, 391
for 1989 and 59 for 1988.
It is a far cry from the 125,000 who fled Cuba 11 years ago through the Port of Mariel and whose resettlement is estimated to have cost $300 million. But observers detect in the trend the same pattern of events that led to the Mariel boatlift.
Speculation here is that Castro, as he did in 1980, is easing travel restrictions as a safety valve for bls regime, offering an opportunity to those who want to hazard the trip across the sea.
So strong is the feeling that the City Manager of Miami. Cesar Odio. himself a Cuban American, has told Washington that the area cannot handle another flood of refugees.
State Department officials do not share the view that Castro will again dump some of his people on Miami as an alternative to Instituting reforms. However, officials have
confirmed that a plan was drawn up after the 1980 experience to deal with such an eventuality.
Coast Guard spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Karonis would not disclose details- of the plan, except to tell the press that it includes responses of the various agencies in any "mass exodus scenario." Unnamed federal officials have insisted that the US will not permit a repeat of Mariel.
But bearing in mind the vast number of Cuban exiles living In the South Florida area — estimated at nearly a million — sentiments will run high in favour of admitting refugees if another "mass exodus" takes place. — GEMINI NEWS
MOHAMED HAMALUDIN was formerly Guyana correspondent of the Caribbean News Agency. He Is now managing editor of Miami Times.