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INDIA GOES TO POLLS

Uncertainties Overshadow Predictions

Chanchai Sarkar writes from New Delhi
Special to the Star
PSEPHOLOGISTS are people who study elections and attempt mathematical predictions. There aren't many of them in India but the very few there are now make good money doing public predictions for newspapers and magazines and private ones for political parties. Sometimes the private whisper leaks into the press. One of them gives the Congress Par ty an edge over all the others, almost near an absolute majority
However, as the trends tn the Nepal election show, predictions can go awry. Journalists predict out of gut feeling and elementary calculations and that predictions go like this : Congress will be the largest party, without an overall majority: BJP will be next with a considerable hike over its 86 in the last election; Janata Dal will be the third, with the Leftists and others bringing up the rear; the Janata Dal (S) of Mr Chandra Shekhar can only be a parasite, having to cling to some other party.
Quite a number of wise people have said that the day of single party governments Is over in India and that future is with coalitions. This was said In the 60 s. too. when, in a number of states like West Bengal and UP. coalition governments took office, wrangled and bickered and then disappeared. Mr. V.P. Singh's government was not a coalition in the strict sense because the BJP and the Leftists supported it from outside. But it was a coalition of sorts. After the results and before a government is formed, there can be a lot of movement across party borders. In fact. between Congress. Janata Dal, Janata Dal (S) and a fair number of the BJP followers there are no ideological borders. Nine parliamentary elections In 38 years Is not at all a bad tally for a Third World country Democracy in India could be said to be alive and kicking But that is too simple a statement. The late Aneurin Bevan, the British Labour Party leader, once said "Parliament in England is hundreds of {ears old but Democracy In ngland is quite recent." In other words, having a Parlia ment docs not mean having a Democracy. This is very true of India.
In the last 15 years or so the Indian Parliament has de dined in prestige and effectiveness The Executive has gained in power and centralisation has increased apace. On the other hand, the State has been able to do very little for the depressed the landless, bonded labour, women, children. and there has been hardly any increase tn social security coverage. The State has become a repressive Instrument In many ways. It has Interfered with the govern ments In the federal units and taken them over, sometimes with little excuse, and has had to rule some of them with paramilitary or military help.
Those issues have found little reflection in the election speeches of leaders. As for manifestoes, they are not taken very seriously. Capsulat-ing everything In one or at beat two words the Congress has called for Stability, the BJP for Ram and Roti and the Janata Dal for Mandal (Implementation of the Mandal Committee Report on the backward classes). All these are misleading simplifications.
In the 1984 election. Rajtv • Gandhi and the Congress got a thundering majority but couldn t give stability. Ram is an emotive appeal, the kind of call that, with race and language. is a divisive lollipop. Rajiv Gandhi's style of functioning during 1984 to 1989 showed an immaturity sauced by gimmickry and cronyism that people began to distrust His economic polity left the country bankrupt. Maybe he has learnt a bitter lesson. In the opposition, though, his brief foray into Gulf diplomacy was a farce His party can only gain in the North of India because In Rajasthan. Madhya Pradesh. Himachal Pradesh
and UP it made a very poor showing tn 1990. It has no way to go but up. In the South Congress is popular and so is the personable Rajtv Gandhi.
The BJP is an unknown material. Could this party's being in power have a negative effect on Bangladesh ? Some BJP leaders have said they will try to stop the Inflow of migrants from Bangladesh but have not spoken in religious terms. BJP governments have held office
to Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh and the taMv n°‘ ™
Tbe BJP .peaka^wtth differ cadreteed Rashtrtya Swayarnat vak Sangh (RSS) a. It. muaefe arm how strong the RSS and VHP (Vlahwa Hindu Pari.had) elements in It are remain to be seen
Mr V P Singh has nothing new io offer and people found hta style of functioning as Prime Minister disappointing He dithered and .withered sway all of his Prime Minister
It Is presumptuous to speak of whal the Indian public wants but one should have a shot at making some rash remarks India cannot afford frequent elections. They are vastly expensive both officially In what the state spends and unofficially even more In what the parties and candidates spend Holders of No 2 money are the major contributor* to election funds and they certainly expect a return for thetr Investment
The role of the media has changed enormously election by election. Doordarshan and AIR have stayed In their groove and so they are being by passed with video and audio cassettes some so emotive that they have been banned. Hoardings posters, handbills, film advertisements, newspaper advertisements have drawn hundreds of crores of rupees and have meant a bonanza to printers and others Of course every wall that can be defaced has been
The regions offer an interesting prospect. Tamil Nadu will probably have a woman aa Chief Minister — Jayalalltha the film star of the AIADMK party who has entered Into an entente with the Congress. Another star. N. T. Rama Rao.
with Ma Telugu Deaara party Is py^ijg to make a come beck to CommnMt ^hief^MroVt^ Jyod Item. M
What la much more chancy * proepect to Punjab and Assam Ocldlng on the Punjab election must have been hard for Mr Chandra Shekhar', aw-ernment. Will the extremists terrify the voter, into voting for them or will there be enough armed protection to allow clean voting ? No partv has any formula for aalvlng the impasse tn Punjab Asami and Kashmir (where there will be no election), at tel mm they have cared to lay before the public. Thia only goes to corroborate the thesis that India s true problems - communahsm and divlstve ethnic Issues -are not reflected to the election and the campaign
The media have nothing much to hope For. Rajtv Gandhi was firmly against au to no my for the electronic me dla and framed a draconian Defamation Bill which he ted to withdraw V P Singh did press the Prawr Bharati Bill (about autonomy) but It was not what the National Front man! festo had promised Anyway before even that emaciated Bill could become law hl. government fell L K Advani. president of BJP. was Information Minister In the Janata Dai Gov eminent of 1977 and set up a committee to go Into autonomy for Radto-TV. When tt reported he said "We promised auton omy but they want freedom
The author la a noted columnist and a former Assistant Editor of The Statesman and founder director of the Press Institute of India. He writes regularly for several Indian and foreign newspapers. tnclouding The Daily Star