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World Population Hits 5.4 Billion
****For the first time in history, more than half the world's couples have the means of choosing the timing and spacing of their families****
ONLY a few countries with large populations have good records on civil and political rights.
A study by the Population Crisis Committee of 120 countries with serious population pressures shows that only a handful liad managed to maintain stable constitutional governments.
High population growth has also made It more difficult for most governments to keep pace with development services. like health and education.
Low-tncomc countries (excluding India and China ) have seen primary school enrolments fall from an average annual rate of 5.6 per cent In 1975-80 to 2.7 per cent for 1980-87.
According to the United Nations Educational. Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), about 105 million children 6-11 years old were not in school in 1985. Of these, over 70 per cent were in the least developed nations. By the year 2000 — If present trends continue — the number of out-of-school children will almost double to about 200 million.
These are only some of the consequences of high population growth, the world popula-
Uon projected to be 5.4 billion in mid-1991. By 2001. the total will be 6.4 billion.
Nearly all (95 per cent) of this growth will be in developing countries. The largest relative increase will be in Africa but the largest numerical Increases will be In Southern Asia.
The number of people tn South Asia will increase from 1.2 billion today to 1.5 billion by the end of the century. East Asia — including China and Japan — has over a fifth of total world population but is growing much more slowly.
Japan has reached below "replacement level" fertility — meaning an average family size of less than two children. China will probably reach this level by the year 2000 with South Korea and Thailand close behind.
These projections are made in the State of World Population 1991 released by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).
There arc hopeful signs. The most recent evidence shows that for the first time, fertility is declining in all major regions of the world." the UNFPA report says. "Even in high-fertility, low-contraceptive areas such as South Asia and Africa, today's women arc having fewer children com-
parer! with those in 1960-65."
Projection's for South Asia suggest that fertility is now declining at an accelerating rate and will re^ch four children per woman in 1995-2000.
Contraceptive use is growing. In Elast Asia, fertility rates have more than halved over the past 25 years. Contraceptive prevalence rates have also Increased from 13 per cent to 70 per cent.
Through family planning programmes. China and India, respectively, claim 200 and 106 million "births averted." For India, this meant a saving since 1979 of US$742 billion (calculated at US$7,000 per child. The cost of providing education and health care in India, from infancy to adulthood).
China, Colombia. Fiji, South Korea. Indonesia, Mexico. Thailand, Sri Lanka and several Indian states (including Kerala) have seen dramatic declines tn population growth. It took Thailand only eight years to reduce total fertility rates
from 6.5 to 3.5 live births per woman.
"For the first time in history. more than half the world's couples have the means of choosing the timing and spacing of their families. ~ the UNFPA the report notes. "Fertility rates are falling in all regions of the world."
Still, the UNFPA notes that "population growth and migration are contributing to changes in key ecosystems in developing countries with unknown but potentially serious effects on food supply In the immediate area, arid on global climate change."
About 580 million people are now living in absolute poverty on marginal or fragile land. One of the results has been mass migration from subsistence farming to the cities. By the year 2000, the urban population of the developing world will be almost double that of the developed world.
The report notes that developing countries as a whole have suffered a serious decline In food self-sufficiency. Their
cereal Imports tn 1969-71 were only 20 million tons. By 1983-85. they had risen to 69 million tons, a figure expected to hit 112 million tons by the year 2000.
The UNET’A report cites an Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development study which show that the strongest migratory pressures — within countries and Internationally — always appear in countries with rapid population growth and a slow pace of development.
In developing countries, the total fertility rate (a national measure of the average number of births per woman) is now about 3.8 per cent. About 51 per cent of couples regularly use some means of contraception.
The United Nations has targetted the Increase of "contraceptive prevalence' to 59 per cent. Maintaining the Eresent contraceptive preva nee of 51 per cent already means an additional 108 million contraceptive users. To reach the modest 59 per cent target will require 186 million more users Most of these will be tn Asia, with the rest divided more or less evenly between Africa. Latin America, tlie Caribbean* and Arab states.
"Meeting the targets means awarding a higher priority to population In development programmes, and extending family planning Information and services to perhaps 2 billion people." the UNFPA says.
Overall, the target implies that the number of couples using family planning will rise by 50 per cent, from 381 million in 1991 to 567 million by I lie year 2000.
The report says the "overall cost of meeting the targets — to governments, contraceptive users and the international community — will be about US$9 billion a year by the end of the century: double today's expenditures, but far smaller than the cost of failure."
Today, only four of the world's 170 countries limit access to family planning services and 144 provide either direct or indirect support to family planning programmes.
The experience of the last 20 years shows that strong, well-managed family planning programmes are highly effective." the UNFPA report notes. "By purely voluntary means, they have achieved smaller family stse. healthier mothers and children and more balanced rates of population growth th developing countries." — Depthnews.