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INDIAN ELECTION SCENE

Congress, BJP, Janata Dai-Left Poised for Triangular Fight

Reazuddin Ahmed writes from Calcutta
****Rajiv Gandhi's Congress sees the election as a referendum for stability. L. K. Advani of BJP looks at it as a fight to establish Ram Rajya in India. VP Singh seeks a mandate to bring "Garibs in Delhi Masnad."****
INDIAN election for the tenth Lok Sabhatosaen by many as a referendum for the survival of world's biggest democracy It does not mean that after the election polls there will be no democracy if the Indians again vote for a hung parliament. But in the event of a hung parliament the democracy Will have a tough going in India
The politicians take the tenth Lok Sabha elections as a referendum for their survival. The Congress (I) led by Rajiv Gandhi sees the election as a referendum for stability while Lal Krishna Advani of Bharatiya Janata Party looks at It as a light to establish Ram Rajya in India. VP Singh seeks a mandate to bring the "Oaribs in Delhi Masnad" by implement ing Mandal Commission report. The Mandlr-Mandai issue Is now dominating the Indian elections. Advani and VP Singh are playing the Mandir and Mandal cards while Rajiv Is ^rlng the card of stability
Indians have not yet responded positively to any one except a swing for Hindu re vtvallsm in parts of India
There Is a strong belief tn India that "he who rules Aryavarta. rules India." The Aryavarta is the Hindi heart land of Uttar Pradesh No edge for any party in Uttar Pradesh is yet established. However. Congress which got only 15 out of 85 seats in 1989 elections may Increase the tally marginally. But Congress will lose at least 35 seats In southern states and in Maharastra. according to opinion polls. Traditionally, when Congress gains in Aryavarta It loses In Deccan.
There will be a triangular fight in the elections among Congress (I). BJP and Janata Dal-Left combine. In Uttar Pradesh fourth element has been added and that is Janata Dal (Socialist) led by Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar. Chandra Shekhar will have to remain satisfied with few scats In UP and Ilariyana. But even with smaller number of scats he aspires to become the Prime Minister again with the support, of some big parties. But it may remain a drcam this time for Chandra Shekhar.
Vlshwanath Pratap Singh who symbolised the hopes and aspirations of Indian people only a-year-and-half ago is now blamed for reintroducing caste system tn Indian politics. He accepted the Mandal Commission report which reserved government quotas for the Harijan (lower caste Hindus). This sparked off a countrywide demonstration by the students many of whom died of self-immolation. Then came the issue of construction of Ram-Janambhumi Mandir In Ayodha by coalition partner BJP. Both Mandal and Mandir issues compelled VP Singh to leave power. These two issues have got prominence in the manifestos of all the political par-ties. BJP has played well with Hindu passion. BJP made an
inroad both tn upper and fewer caste Hindus. Advani's Rathja tra and promise to make India a Ramrajya divided the voles among the Harljans too Hari jans are more Ram devotees. So VP Singh s hope to play with the backward people seems to have failed. But VP Singh will gain In Bihar which is a caste ridden society BJP is doing well tn Rajasthan. Ou jarat. parts of UP and in Mad hya Pradesh, tn Madhya Pradesh BJP Is likely to lose some seats, but tt will gain in Maharastra where BJP made adjustment in 14 seats with Shiv Sena. In. Karnataka the Maharaja of Mysore has joined BJP and he Is likely to return In West Bengal BJP has made an Inroad but Is unhkely to get any scat
But Advani Is facing the popular film star Ralesh Khanna. I*cople say that Advani Is contesting the second scat tn Gujarat maybe to avoid the risk of defeat by Rajesh Khanna.
Indian political commentators view that the four major south Indian states of Tamil Nadu. Andhra Pradesh. Kar nataka and Kerala always behave differently from the northern states. They never vote the way the northern states do. Tamil Nadu has a unique political culture which brings film stars In political prominence. In Andhra Pradesh also N.T. Rama Rao is dominating the politics.
In Tamil Nadu A1DMK led by Ms. Jayalalita sides with Congress while DMK led by Karunanidhi may support Janata Dai-Left coalition. In Karnataka Congress may not improve position and there is
chance of losing some In Kerala Left Front may do well this time.
Indians will vote for elect Ing 510 members out of 543 on May 20. 23 and 26 The three-day elections are looked as crucial for Indian democracy and political stability The Indian political culture over last 44 years to : one party gov ernment provides stability while the coalition fails. Congress Is trying to score
over this point. The Congress slogans Include political stabil ity during the forty years' Congress rule There were four prime ministers — Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru. lai Bahadur Shastry. Indira Gandhi and Ra tGandhi - while during the
r years rule of Janata coaii Uon the country got four prime ministers. They are Morarj! Desai. Charan Singh VP Smgh and Chandra Shekhar But Congress’s appeal could make
hnle dent among the voters. This Is mainly as the Indian political analysts look because Rajiv Gandhi s Inability to earn the confidence of the people As a ruler he has felled miser
ettement this time maybe mainly because the voters are TTmonSs*0 *’ *° P°US WMhln
Some of the Indian newspapers have raised the ques
democracy InIndia. ' columnists in some of the
aww pahtteal culture which •3^minded
mmw praosdeattol apMHw to MVMtoM to Iw
raa Tht Left Prowl leaders Bengal should ^"Zftoid^ the centre The Left Front - a combine of the like minded folly ruhngfW^tbB^j‘fo^Tt years A combine of such ns ture with commitments la alterne
But ail the political parties
rise of BJP as a rational alter native to Congress. BJP has taken this as a make er break election for the party But the other political parties may al certain stage take a united stand against BJP to halt communal pohttes in secular India