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Robinson Faces Tough Fight to Keep in Power

Lindsay Mackoon writes from Port of Spain
*** Trinidad had one of the strongest economies in the Caribbean until oil prices fell and the party that had held power for 30 years finally ran out of steam. The new alliance that took over inherited an empty Treasury and took tough measures that involved going to the IMF. Prime Minister Ray Robinson, who survived a coup attempt last year, has become increasingly unpopular. Soon he faces a general election. ***
PRIME Minister Ray Robinson of Trinidad and Tobago faces a tough battle to stay in power In elections expected at the end of the year. He is under mounting pressure to hand over to his deputy. Winston Dookeran. but he was reelected leader of his party only in March and is confident of victory at the polis.
His problems stem from tough government decisions to turn the economy around. Salaries were cut by ten per cent, a monthly cost of living allowance stopped, a 15 per cent value added tax introduced and prices have risen as a result of going to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for standby credit.
The ruling National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) has also lost support because of Internal conflicts. Robinson says: The main thing is that the government has survived. We are now articulating our achievements to the elec-
Calls for Robinson to quit increased following a by-election loss and In the wake of the coup attempt last July by a
radical black Muslim group, during which Robinson was held hostage in the parliament
building.
When the NAR took office four years ago with a crushing 33-3 scat win over the People's National Movement (PNM) it faced a stagnant economy due to depressed oil prices and an empty Treasury. As a result election promises remained largely unfulfilled.
Until 1986 the PNM had held uninterrupted power for 30 years. The NAR motto "One Love" represented the coming together of the country's two major races — Indians and Africans — as well as the many social and economic classes in this cosmopolitan island of 1.2 million people.
Robinson, of African extraction, was ably assisted by Basdeo Panday. leader of the NAR's East Indian bloc, and John Humphrey, a firebrand white architect and activist.
Differences between the conservative Robinson and the populist Panday and his followers erupted into a public quarrel. Panday and three other ministers were expelled from the government. As a result Robinson lost the support of many East Indians, who are based in the central farming belt where Panday is most popular.
Those expelled formed the United National Congress (UNO. with Panday as leader, which is perceived as a party run by East Indians for East Indians. It. too, is plagued by internal conflicts.
Panday and his lieutenants, former energy minister Kelvin Ramnath and former junior finance minister Trevor Sudama. find themselves having to fight the racial exclusiveness that has troubled po-
lltlcal parties tn Trinidad since universal franchise was granted in 1946.
The PNM has been slowly recovering from its 1986 mauling under the experienced but bland former energy minister Patrick Manning. Many people have returned to the PNM fold, but Manning is in conflict with many ex-ministers and a lingering cloud of corruption and mismanagement makes the party a shadow of the force it once was under the leadership of DT Eric Williams.
Unemployment stands today at 22.3 per cent against 10 per cent a decade ago. Robinson says he had no alternative but to resort to the IMF. Cutting wages in the public sector and deregularisation of the economy was the price.
Efforts to turn round the
economy are beginning to pay off. says Finance Minister Selby Wilson. He sees a growth rate of 0.7 per cent this year following seven years of negative growth. Wilson believes the country could have benefited by $70.5 million over the last six months as a result of rising oil prices.
Commentators say that unless there is a new .alliance between the NAR and those expelled three years ago. Robinson faces certain defeat Elections must take place by next March.
Political scientist Dr Selwyn Ryan says the population is disillusioned. He adds: They are fed up with the policies of a middle class party whose government they perceive as uncaring."
Constitutional expert Dr Hamid Ghany says the NAR deserves another term to complete the job of restructuring the economy. He adds: "The result could be a hung parliament. A large number of undecided voters means the situation is extremely fluid."
— GEMINI NEWS.