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Economic prospects gloomy, says ADB report

By Shahiduzzaman Khan
Short-term prospects for economic development in Bangladesh have been clouded in the aftermath of the Oulf war. This situation is likely to affect Bangladesh and most countries 1n South Asian region. the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its 1990 annual report issued thia month.
The world economy also faces extremely uncertain prospects in 1991 and world output is not likely to grow by more than 1 to 2 per cent, the report says.
Higher oil bills, lost export revenue arising from the trade embargo on Iraq and heavy losses on account of workers remittances will squeeze the balance of payments of most of the South Aslan countries including Bangladesh, the report says.
Assuming a normal monsoon, agricultural production will continue at least along the present level tn Bangladesh, given the Improved policies adopted in recent years.
Similarly, policy reforms to boost the efficiency of industries are likely to be further strengthened, the report says.
In 1990, the ADB report says, Bangladesh recorded a 16 per cent increase in its exports over the previous year’s. Agriculture recovered from its lackluster performances in Bangladesh due to favourable weather and ' improved agricultural policies'.
The report says, Bangladesh recovered strongly enough' to record a 6.2 per cent growth, exceeding the government target. This was mainly due to a strong 7.7 per cent growth in agriculture and an equally impressive growth in industry.
The report says, besides favourable weather conditions.
some of the dynamism in agriculture was attributable to Im proved policies, which helped expand irrigation and the supply of inputs.'
In most of the South Asian countries, infiation continued to pose a major problem although it differed.
In Bangladesh, the report says, an expansionary fiscal stance combined with a depreciation of the currency pushed Inflation to 8 per cent, about 2 per cent over the 1989 level.
Imports grew by nearly 11 per cent in Bangladesh during 1990, partly due to government's 'policy of import liberalisation.' the report says.
However, the country's (Bangladesh) terms of trade showed some improvements over 1989, due largely to higher prices of its export* notably ready-made garments, raw jute and jute goods, leather and shrimps, the report notes.
During the year, the ADB report says, Bangladesh in-creased customs duties, raised excise duties on cigarettes, natural gas and banking services. and made an upward adjustment in the prices bf petroleum and items produced by public enterprises.
As one of the Developing Member Countries (DMCs), Bangladesh received a #351 million loan exclusively from ADD
During the year, the Bank's first project exclusively targeting women as beneficiaries was approved for Bangladesh.
The scheme styled Rural women employment creation project', was designed to create non-farm employment in rural areas, the report says.