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NO PARTY MAKING BIG HEADWAY

Stage is Set for the Indian Election

by Sumanta Banerjee The Daily Star Special Correspondent
**After what has been to far in the history of poet-Independence Indian politics the shortest parliament — lasting only 15 month (from December 1989 to March 1991) — the various political partiet are again girding their loins for a national contest staking their claimt on the prospect of ruling India for the next five years.
EW DELHI : The walls arc again screaming with Dosters carrvlna pictures of political leaders and slogans. City parks and village market places are again throbbing with crowds listening to speeches blared out over loudspeakers. The politicians arc again on their routine rounds from one corner of the country to another with folded hands. The scenes arc all too familiar to the Indian voters. Yet another national parliamentary election Is round the comer. About 571 million Indian voters arc expected to go to the polls sometime between the third and fourth weeks of May
After what has been so far in the history of post-Independence Indian politics the shortest parliament — lasting only 15 month (from December 1989 to March 1991) — the various political parties are again girding their loins for a national contest staking their claims on the prospect of ruling India for the next five years. But Judging by the trends, one does not see much hope of the new parliament, after the tenth parliamentary elections, lasting intact till 1996. Political observers are predicting another hung parliament'. The last elections, which also resulted in a 'hung parliament' with no single party winning absolute majority (the required number of seats being 258 in a house of 514) led to the Installation of a minority government led by Vishwanath Pratap Sing's National Front, depending on the support of the Left parties on the one hand and the Hindu communal Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the other.
The precariously balanced government fell in November. 1990 following the BJP's withdrawal of support, and was succeeded by the most lightweight minority government that India had ever had — a government run by the rump of V.P. Singh's party, a rag tag of 54 parliamentarians only headed by the over-ambitious Chandrashekhar who deserted the National Front in pursuit of his life-long aim to be the Prime Minister, and fell back on the support of the same Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress (I) which he had opposed during the last elections.
Chandrashekhars government fell within four months, when in March this year he was forced to resign after his supporter, the Congress (I) refused to continue back-seat driving and demanded to have its way (by asking for the dismissal of the state government of Haryana tn north India — virtually a feudatory fief run by a gang of relatives and followers of Chandrashekhar's ally, the Deputy Prime Minister Devi
This murky record of political skullduggery and opportunism of the elected representatives In Parliament during the last 15 months looms large over the coming elections. These politicians — many among whom are again being nominated as candidates by their respective parties will have to face an electorate which have grown cynical about most of the political parties which are in the fray. All these years, the Indian voters had been used to the cacophony of promises made by candidates during the campaign and their forgetting them soon after their election.
They have leamt to take this in their stride. They make jokes about candidates visiting them, displaying concern over their plight and promising redressal only on the eve of elections. Yet, they have been regularly going to the polling booths, whenever there are elections — probably hoping for some change to be brought about by one or the other political coalition that keeps on emerging every now and then from the mercurial political scenario of modern India.
Since 1969. the Indian electorate had always been in the search for an alternative to the suffocating monopolistic rule of the Congress. That year, in the state assembly elections, they voted to power In many states coalitions of non-Congress parties. They failed them, thanks to the petty squabbles over personal rivalries and communal disputes that dogged these uneasy coalitions and brought them down. Again in 1977, they elected the non-Congress Janata Dal coalition to the Indian parliament to give them a chance to run the entire country. It was a repetition of the same story, with the elected representatives this time indulging at the Centre in the same old petty fights over personal leadership (between Morarji Desai and Charan Singh), the same opportunistic alliances (between Charan Singh wishing to be the Prime Minister and his erstwhile enemy the Congress of Indira Gandhi, which he needed as support to gain his objective). Following this disaster, after nine years of Congress (I) rule the Indian electorate again sought an alternative in V.P. Singh's National Front government after the 1989 elections. But the same old snags cropped up again to bring about its downfall — Eirsonal rivalries among the
aders (between V.P. Sing and Chandra Shekhar); differences over handling the rising Hindu communal threat posed by'the BJP and the anti social forces rallied under its wing; and last. but not the least. the manipulation* of Congress (J) headed by Rajiv Gandhi who still smarting under hi* party's defeat at the last poll*. I* determined to bring down by hook or by crook any government at the Centre which is not run by his clan.
It Is this hopeless experience of the last several years that emburdens a helpless Indian electorate which are going to face the coming parliamentary poll*. The record of almost a decade of continuous Congress (I) rule — under Indira Gandhi from 1980 to 1984. and Rajiv Gandhi from 1984 till 1989 — does not inspire much faith in the party among the general public, what with Indira Gandhi's failure to solve the secessionist trend* in Punjab, her authoritarian and repressive measure* which were continued by her son. Rajiv, who to boot, during hl* regime acquired the notoriety of suspected corruption over the deal with Bofors on the purchase of armaments. The corruption charges — yet to be proved — still cling to Rajiv like mud. and he will have a tough time during his election campaign to cleanse himself of that muck. Besides, his party is no longer the cohesive organization as It used to be during the days of his grandfather and mother. In almost every state, it is ridden with factions, which might put up their own candidates against the official candidates, thus dividing the Congress (I) votes. Some are already cscap'n/ the stoktag^p^ seek nomination from other parties. But the Congress (I) ts still a force to reckon with It won 212 seats in Parliament during the last elections, emerging as the single largest party. On the basis of this claim, Rajiv tn his election campaign Is protecting his party as the only political force which is able to give India a stable government. and is appealing to the voters to give him a few more seats in Parliament to enable hie party to reach the absolute majority status to form a Congress (I) government.
The other political groups in the fray are mainly three — the V.P. Singh led National Front in alliance with the Left; the BJP and Its Hindu communal allies; and the Chandraahekhar-led Janta Dal (Socialist). Among them, the National Front-Left alliance and the BJP are the only groups which appear to project some Ideological stance. The former — In Ils first election rally — reiterated its commitment to the protection of minorities (the Muslims in particular, who had been victims of communal riots during the last several months) and of the depressed and backward castes (a proposal to reserve seats for them in government services by the V.P Singh government provoked a furious Hindu upper caste reaction during the last months of his regime). This promise of protection Is being projected by the National Front as evidence of its ideological concern for social equity and democracy, although cynics suspect that It is aimed at garnering the votes protection of minorities (the Muslims in particular, who had been victims of communal riots during the last several months) and of the depressed and backward castes (a proposal to reserve seats for them in government services by the V.P Singh government provoked a furious Hindu upper caste reaction during the last months of his regime). This promise of protection Is being projected by the National Front as evidence of its ideological concern for social equity and democracy, although cynics suspect that It is aimed at garnering the votes of Muslims who constitute about 12 per cent of the population. and the depressed castes and tribal* conMitutin* about 24 per cent of the r TW BJP. Ideotogkaliy to consistent in its assertion of a Rana Rajya In order to compete with the National Front, the BJP has added an rehfious priority by coining thus promising the voters a religious utopia with abundant food! Since the BJP to mainly influential in the Hindi heartland (it runs state governments In Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan), where the Congress (J) will also have to contest. Rajiv Gandhi's parly has come up with another sfogar. which Mb io placate both the Hindus and Muslims as well as accommodate economic demands: 'Ram-rtahim. Roti-Rod*.
As for Chandrashekhars Janata Dai (3). It has no Ideological pretensions whatsoever. In a desperate effort to scrape through in the election*, ft* pollBelans are seeking alliance* with all partie* — with the BJP in Rajasthan. with Congress (I) tn Uttar Pradesh, with the regional AIDMK in Tamilnadu tn the south.
It is this assortment of Incompatible political parties and group* which the Indian voter* will have Io face in the parliamentary poll In May. None of these parties and group* can claim an all-lndia basis (barring the Congress 1. which again is fractured by organizational dispute* in almost every state, which is likely to frustrate Its attempts at emerging as an absolute majority on the basis of the claim of a national party). By all Indications, a* of now. the 1991 mid-term parliamentary poll will lead to another hung parliament' with no single party gaining absolute majority — or a wafer-thin majority — followed by the installation of a precariously balanced government dogged by the same Imponderables that had been the fate of Indians during the last several years.