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Bumper crop likely
A recent international survey has forecast bumper crop this year In Bangladesh but cautioned that declining price of toodgratns vis-a- vis increasing production eost will lower income and purchasing power of the rural population, reports UNB.
They survey. "Bangladesh 1991: Economic Outlook", conducted by Virginia-based Bangladesh US Business Council, said that because of favourable weather, crop production in 1990-91 would surpass previous year's record yield of 18.5 million metric tonns.
But simultaneously the Council, a non-profit American organisation founded to pro-mote and strengthen commercial tics between United States and Bangladesh, cautioned that a larger crop would further decrease grain prices already pushed down by last year's abundant supplies.
On the other hand, the survey added, higher costs of oil and gas baaed Inputs would lead to higher production costs and depress agricultural growth in real terms.
Country's real GDP growth has been estimated to slow from 6.2 per cent in 1989-90 to 5 per cent in 1990-91 mainly due to what the survey report stated higher oil prices and abrupt loss of remittances by expatriate workers from Kuwait and Iraq.
Inflationary pressures arc increasing, said the report, and the Consumer Price Index is likely to rise to 12 per cent from 1989-90-s moderate 9.3 per cent.
As the survey was conducted during the Middle East
conflict. some of its forecast, based on prediction that the war might prolong, would not be as obvious now because to changed scenario tn the Gulf
The survey observed that world trade growth was slowing as a result of the Gulf crisis but predicted Bangladesh's manufacturing exports, garments in particular, should withstand the downturn because of its low cost structure.
Higher oil prices have increased demand for Jute as a substitute for oil based synthetics and the survey expects that the elevated Jute Crices would to some extent elp moderate the negative effects of the Gulf crisis.
On the Inflow of external
assistance, the report says foreign aid will continue to finance "a good portion" of the budget deficit.
The Business Council report said quoting prediction of Its Economic Intelligence Unit (E1U) that the donors' prescribed structural reforms would hit industry
Commenting on the various economic stabilisation proposals of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the report observed "these strict proposals amount to a virtual lakcoypr by the World Bank of planning and budgeting functions" of the country.
The report pointed out that multinational companies com plained of stiff competition from low-priced smuggled goods. "They also charge that some local companies evade taxes and Import duties and are therefore able to undercut market prices."
Negative effects of these complaints on inflow of foreign capital have been predicted.
It was however expected In the report that Incentives for foreign investment given in the new Industrial policy would attract foreign investors. It particularly expected increasing inflow of foreign Investment In Export Processing Zone.