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Cracks Widen in Yugoslav Federal System

Petar Hatji-Ristic writes from Zagreb
**Yugoslavia is in serious trouble. There is talk about a breakup of the federation of six republics formed at the end of World War Two under marshal Josip Tito. Two republics, Croatia and Slovenia, reject the federal army's view that federal laws take precedence over republican ones. They want a loose confederation of independent states, or even complete secession, but Serbia, the largest republic, is determined to preserve the old federal system.
RAFFIT1 on a_wall just off the main Square of the Republic tn Zagreb. the capita] of Yugoslavia's second-largest republic, reads tn English : "Croatia forever." On public buildings the republican flag-not the Yugoslav one - is flying.
But behind this display of independence there is deep anxiety about the possibility of federal army intervention and civil war. Housewives are hoarding food and children are kept off the streets at night as Yugoslavia faces its most serious crisis since the war.
Police dressed as commandos. with rifles slung over their shoulders, could recently be seen guarding the parliament of the republic of Croatia. Inside the government buildings was Croatia's Minister of Defence. Martin SpegclJ. the man at the centre of the latest scandal rocking the country.
The federal army, which is drawn from all six republics, has claimed Spegclj was planning an insurrection and illegally bought arms from Hungary for a reserve police or paramilitary force in Croatia.
But the vice-president of the Croatian parliament. Vladimir Seks. said the army made up the story as a pretext for intervention in Croatia.
The evidence was rigged, the witnesses false and the alm was to provide the psychological justification for army intervention in Croatia." he said. "I hope this (army intervention) doesn't happen. But if it does, it will be the end of Yugoslavia and the army." Spegclj. who. until multi Carty elections a year ago. was Imself a lieutenant-general in the federal army, dismissed the army evidence against him
But he had already recalled the arms and demobilised the reserve police force he had been arming. Now the federal presidency is trying Io defuse the crisis it fears could bring about a bloody end to Yugoslavia.
Spcgclj's defence has been: "No one can threaten me with arrest or interrogation: for me. only the laws of the republic of Croatia apply, an^ nothing else."
At Issue Is whether Croatia will submit to the army's view that Yugoslav federal law takes precedence over republican law. Croatia, and the republic of Slovenia to the west - clearly believe they do not. That sentiment speaks volumes about the quagmire into which the Yugoslav federation seems to be sinking.
The Croatian and Slovenian vision of Yugoslavia is at best a loose federation of independent states. Otherwise, they could try to secede from, the federation.
With the conflict between the federal army and Croatia still unresolved, the army has been forced to move on yet another front. Top generals, both serving and retired. arc backing a new nation-wide political parly aimed at preserving communism in a federal Yugoslavia — just as the country's founder President, marshal Josip Tito, would have wished.
The President of the new movement, the League of Communists Movement for Yu ^■slavia. Dragan Atanasovski. announced at the party's, first conference in Belgrade that: The main aim of our movement is to keep Yugoslavia as a federal, democratic community of all its nations and nationalities and to build socialism."
Says Stojan Cerovic. a Journalist on the independent Belgrade magazine Vreme (Time): This party is made up mainly of army pensioners, people who worry about the future of Yugoslavia and their status in society ... army, police, people form the power structure whose main aim is to keep cv-erything as it is.
I hey couldn’t possibly come to power through normal elections. But with the help of army Intervention they could, and so become a political In sirument of the army
A resolution to the current conflict might only be found if Croatia were to allow Serbs liv Ing tn its boundaries to Join with Serbia. But Croatia has ruled this out.
And even if that question were resolved, there would be many others. Serbs arc spread throughout the countty. Such is the heritage of communist rule under which Tito, drew republican borders without much regard for distribution of different nationalities.
Sociologist Vesna Pesic explains: "Croatia wants its indc-pcndence immediately, but Serbia wants to keep Yugoslavia as an expression of Its national interest or to make a greater Serbia which would mean taking a part of the territory of Croatia. For the moment this conflict seems un-solvablc.-
This sentiment was confirmed by the Croatian vice-president Vladimir Scks when he was asked whether Serbs from Croatia could eventually Join Serbia. "Croatia's constitution would not allow It to be divided up." he answered firmly.
Film-maker Lazar Stojanovic thinks cMl war has already be-, gun in the country. "Now it's a propaganda war but with all the characteristics of a civil
Liberals like the sociologist Pesic are deeply concerned by the way politicians like Serbian leader Slobodan Mikiscvlc have whipped up nationalist tensions and the effect of endless political scandals on public opinion. "Almost every 15 days a new -candal erupts, whether made by Milosevic in Serbia. Tudjman (in Croatia) or someone else. Our enormous energy • is taken up by matters which arc not of prime importance, everything else In life goes into sciotKl place." said Pesic.
The Yugoslav economy is also In crisis. Annual inflation is running at more than 100 per cent, some factories have not paid workers for months, thousands have Joined protests. even persions are now sometimes being held up. and the economy seems on the verge of collapse with the prospect of several millions out of work
with the prospect of ta-creusmg economic difficulties, new fears raised by the Spegclj affair and with people hoarding food In case of an outbreak of serious violence, perhaps even civil war. some Intellectuals are t ailing on politicians to declare a moratorium on the seHk-ment of their conflicts.
Pesic has suggested It should be formulated to give each republic the maximum Independence and the minimum requirement for Joint action. It is hoped that one or two years of peace would allow the introduction of democratic reforms. But even If the federal presidency, which has representatives from each republic and is meeting tn the coming weeks, were to agree to such a moratorium, there arc still deep anxieties among Intcltec-tuafc.
"We arc worried because we never and enough strength to break away form this totalitarian indcology on which we relied. cither communism or nationalism." said Pesic. "Il's a specific problem of the .Yugoslav people.'
GEMINI NEWS.
I'ETARHADJI-RISTI has written extensively on Balkan "flairs. I Ie mas pniSouslq based in llelgrade where he represented several major western newspapers. lie has Just returned from making a documentary on the political crisis tn Yuyoslniia.