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War’s end to boost business
WASHINGTON. Mar 3: Many economic expect the end of the Gulf War to boost consumer confidence and lead to a spurt in spending, but not to have a great Impact on the recession, reports AP.
"Consumer spending Just is not going to be growing very rapidly over the next year." economist Bruce Steinberg of Merrill Lynch Capital Markets said Thursday.
"The problem has not been a lack of confidence. ” he said:
“The problem is that consumers don't have, any money to spend."
The economy now is believed to be in .the second quarter of negative growth — the classic definition of a recession.
But President George Bush's administration and many economists believe it will resume growth this spring and thus be shorter and milder than the average post-World War II recession. Since 1945. economic downturns have lasted an average 11 months, during which the economy declined an average 2.5 per cent.
The Commerce Department
on Friday was releasing its January Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a gauge designed to forecast economic activity six to nine months in advance.
The consensus of economists In advance of the report was that the index would post its fifth decline in the last six months.
The Commerce Department reported earlier this week that a 2.9 per cent drop In consumer spending from October through December helped lead to a 2.0 per cent decline, at an annual rate, in the gross national product during the final quarter of 1990.
The decline in spending continued during January, the department reported, when purchases dropped an additional 0.6 per cent as the Gulf War began, strengthening the belief thal the economy was declining in the current quarter as well.
Consumer spending represents about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.
Richard D. Rippe. President of the National Association of
Business Economists, agreed that the end of the war "is a plus for the outlook." but added, "the recovery won t be robust"
Rippe. who also Is the chief economist for Dean Witter Reynolds, told reporters that falling pH prices and rising confidence would be offset in part by unemployment, a lack of demand for many goods and services and weak corporate performance.
Rippe also noted that most businesses have Improved their inventory controls so that there will be no boom in production such as occurred after past recessions
He said the reluctance of many banks lo lend money, even to their most creditworthy customers, “will be a modest inhibitor to growth as well."
Finally. Rippe added, "we have not had the tax cuts coming into effects" that stimulated economic growth during previous downturns. In fact, he cited recent tax Increases thal are likely lo curtail economic growth