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Election '91: Tasks of the Day-after

by Moazzem Homain
The electoral storm will be over and the dust will hopefully settle after the parliamentary polls on February 27. Whi chever party or combination of parties wins the majority and whosoever else forms the opposition, there will certainly be a change of policy covering a wide spectrum of national life. Everyone participating in the elections has pledged to establish democracy with public accountability. That is exactly for what the people fought for years but were deluded time and again.
Hopefully, history will not repeat itself, and standard rules of democracy will be followed to give the system of representative government a firm institutional shape. True, the form of government will be an important factor for this. One can only hope at this stage that any disagreement over the system will not distort its outcome.
Holding of "free and fair" elections and smooth transfer of power by the interim administration to the elected government under a yet-to-be agreed arrangement among the major political parties will mark the beginning of democratic rule after long many years. Precisely how many years after is an issue of extensive political debate. Rival parties or alliances in the current electoral battle look af this issue from their own points of convenience. This is perhaps a non-issue for the average citizens who want to see democracy and public accountability taking firm roots now. with unfailing commitments by the political parties to practice the same. They would like to see Bangladesh stepping into the future with bold efforts to help overcome its chronic problems of rampant poverty, mass unemployment, severe malnutrition. widespread Illiteracy and inter-related causes of backwardness. The dawn of the twentyftrst century and a new millennium Is now less than a decade away. Many countries around the globe in-cluding those In Asia have made phenomenal progress in last two or three decades but we still remain In the same old labyrinth
Are we not as a nation capable of changing the condi Hons of our subsistence-level living, with fruits'of sustained development more equitably distributed? Or are we des fined to suffer and reconcile ourselves In perpetuity to the third or fourth bottom line position In the world economic atlas? It is for the future democratic government to answer. But the answer will determine the course of events for the coming years — the turn of the century and perhaps beyond that too. The durability of democratic system will also largely depend on how the political leadership comes to grips with pressing economic Issues. How the elected government handles its development agenda will indeed be the central factor in determining the outcome of the return to democratic politics In Bangladesh.
Formulating such an agenda presents a formidable task because of an unfavourable development inheritance, if not anything else. The point has rightly been elucidated by Prof. Rehman Sobhan, Planning Ad viser to the interim government. in his obser.ations at the recent biennial conference of Bangladesh Economic Association.
"A decade of autocracy has left us an unequally personalized development process where all power and patronage was increasingly centralised and development administration was left without any guiding norms. Allocative decisions tended to be arbitrary and no historical memory accumulated to provide a set of precedents needed to sustain disappeared administration. All cases were unique and determined by the bilateral relationship prevailing at a particular point of time between the dispenser of power and patronage and its recipient. ..In sueh circumstances It becomes more easy to understand how the Bangladesh economy stagnated in the 1980s and become structurally atrophied. It la no less surprising that rate of tn vestment should decline, the rate of savings degenerate Into one of the lowest in the Third World, that revenue collections should remain at an unchanged level over a decade, that the share of current expenditures should in the last half of the 1980s come to exceed that of development expenditure and that foreign aid sliould come to underwrite Wholly the entire development budget.'
Now at the turn of a hope fully democratic chapter in our history, the Immediate back-drop of a debilitating economic situation thus provides yet more a compelling reason to face the challenges with boldness. determination and transparency. Certainly Bangladesh is a country where there is no alternative to optimism. For the nation that gained its freedom at a high cost for a better life, it is impossible. without hope, to go through the deprivations that face the poor teeming millions whose votes are being solicited in the elections. The changing international context in which market economic forces and private enterprise (not of course crony capital as the private sector in Bangladesh is largely identified, rightly or wrongly) are receiving greater / attention for economic reforms in erstwhile centrally Development aid Is no longer an "open-ended relief kitchen". Claims. Irrespective of our own performances, can no further be made to unrelieved generosity' from the donors. Delinquency in use of resources can no longer be sustained. The country will have to look increasingly within itself to build an "agenda for sustainable development". Development aid has already become an uncongenial arena where competition Ing those of East European countries is getting tough for external resource transfers. Remittance flows from the Middle East that provided the easy money mostly for consumption purposes are also becoming more and more uncertain now because of the recent developments In the Gulf
For the elected government. the most daunting task will therefore be to set its priorities for a sustainable economic agenda in the light of the new economic realities after two decades of Independence. It is an fntriguing challenge at the same time. A sustainable development strategy will call for strict measures to avoid any laxity that only induces the lapse into high spending and low saving. Efforts for mobilisation of resources through an efficient fiscal and monetary system must be stepped up. A variety of unconventional ways based on tapping the underutilized Ing those of East European countries Is getting tough for external resource transfers. Remittance flow* from the Middle East that provided the easy money mostly for consumption purposes are also becoming more and more uncertain now because of the recent developments in the Gulf
For the elected government. the most daunting task will therefore be to set its priorities for a sustainable economic agenda in the light of the new economic realities after two decades of independence. It Is an fntrigutng challenge at the same time. A sustainable development strategy will call for strict measures to avoid any laxity that only induces the lapse into high spending and low saving. Ef forts for mobilisation of resources through an efficient fiscal and monetary system must be stepped up. A variety of unconventional ways based on tapping the underutilized human and material resources will be needed for aortal nee-
benefit mfyate of development projects Jn the public sector
orous bests and Investment leakage* must be plugged. De tailed and elaborate government controls and regulations which are a fertile breeding ground for corruption should be dismantled While promo lion support and facilities will be necessary for Industrial development. the policy focus will have to be placed not on patronlnation of rent seekers, commission agents and fortune hunters but on rewarding risk taking entrepreneurship. creativity, skills and hardwork In a more congenial environment that encourages and sustains more and more Investments in productive sectors.
For sustainable development. poverty alleviation ef forts will of course merit priority attention. The persistence of poverty tn Bangladesh or its worsening over the years has been a development antithesis, because successive governments have solicited foreign aid in the name of the poor. The country received about 20 billion development dollars in last two decades. The outstanding external debt is now over 10 billion dollars, over half of the total size of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Yet then, the poverty syndrome continues in an unabated manner.
Eradication of poverty is an imperative need to help expand the domestic markets by raising effective demand (demand backed by purchasing power) for sustaining the growth of manufacturing and the drlxe far tadiiacnaitoaom
T*« primary of agrttu*— m another area where thr rfemn cratie government will tow to review the existing policies and reorientate them Io ana-tain a higher growth perfor-
line*.
period. priorities for jpwrn be determined on a sound economic rattonate^ keeping tn view the socio political goal* at
der democracy High (powth at unproductive expenditure* and resource* In past several yean have been one major cause for kmer allocations of available reaources for productive sector*. Financial sector Is also another critical area where effective and more forward-looking reforms or measures will be needed to improve credit recovery performance and ensure cycling or recycling of funds to more efficient W*
The new government after the elections will have to address Itself to some pending routine works related to over
Theae Include preparatory ea-rrtlae* for the national budget for 1991 92. assessment of donors pledged the Paris based annual aid club meeting, revision of Annual Develop ment Programme for 1990-91 and finalisation of the new medium term development with the donor community or development partners on some policy conditionality issues concerning on going aid programmes. The electoral commitments or pledge* made by the political parties or particularly those who win the pen Ces' mandate will be transled into actions through these exercises.
The author Is the Economic Editor of The Doty Star