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Eritrea's Peace Hopes Hinge on Addis Ababa

Jeremy Harding writes from Afabet, Eritrea
ach day at sunrise the inhabitants of Afabet leave their homes and set out across the plain on the hour-and-a-half trek to the mountains that offer safety from Ethiopian MIG jets. As darkness falls the Inhabitants of this Eritrean town return home for the night.
Afabet has been the target of air attacks since 1988 when the town was captured by the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF) in a major push which has brought them within reach of the Eritrean capital. Asmara.
Now. after 30 years of war between the Addis government and Eritrean nationalists, the EPLF may be in a position to take Asmara, forcing Ethiopian ground troops out of Eritrea altogether.
The EPLF is dug in less than 50 kilometres east of the Eritrean capital and its artillery is within range of the airport. At the front line. Eritrean soldiers — including many women — believe that Asmara will fall if the EPLF can render the airport unusable.
Eritrea Is not only afflicted by war. around two million people are threatened by famine following prolonged drought and a series of crop failures. The people of Asmara depend largely on airlifts of emergency food supplies, though monthly relief convoys are now beginning to get through from the port of Massawa following an agreement negotiated between Addis and EPLF by the World Food Programme.
There seems little hope of a military solution to the war given that even of the EPLF seizes Asmara. Ethiopian Jets are likely to continue bombing the main Eritrean towns and targets visible in daylight in the rural areas.
President Mengistu Haile Mariam has been reluctant to abandon attempts at pursuing military solution, despite last year's liberalisation In Ethiopia proper. Apparently taking a lead from Eastern Europe, Mengistu took the first steps towards dismantling the monolithic Marxlst-Leninst state which made some genuine efforts to Improve the lot of rural people.
Now. however. Ethiopia is In a state of revolt and the consequences for Addis Ababa are all too apparent.
To the north of Addis the Tigray People's Liberation front (EPLF) has effective control of the entire province of Tigray. It also operates further south, in tandem with the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front — a movement comprising disaffected groups in Wollo and Gondar.
Meanwhile, In the central and western provinces, the Oromo Liberation Front Is on the move and a new Oromo grouping, encouraged by the TPLF. has added to the swelling anti-government ranks.
The TPLF. which for years pursued a strident "scientific Marxist" line, and which once had dramatic differences with the EPLF. renewed its ties with the Eritreans in 1988.
This alliance has left Addis In a logistical quagmire, for the war with the TPLF and Its allies has drawn closer to the capital while, in Eritrea, the EPLF has recently fought Its most successful campaigns since the mid-Seventies.
The Ethiopian armed forces are thus stretched to capacity and. since the government's defeat at Afabet. there are far fewer officers left to conduct a counter-offensive in Ethiopia or Eritrea.
According to Brigadier General AIL Haji Abdellahi. who was taken prisoner by the EPLF during the battle for Massawa. the Ethiopian officer corps has shrunk by about 500. This figure, says All Haji, includes at least 12 generals executed after the failed coup attempt against Mengistu in 1989 and another 27 Jailed. Some reports put Ethiopian troop losses during the battle for Afabet as high as 20,000
All Haji, a senior military instructor trained in the US and the Soviet Union, is pessimistic about a government recovery. "We could have built a counter-offensive by securing a foothold on the Red Sea coast." he says. "Troops might even have been deployed from Assab if the Ethiopian navy were still strong.
"But we have lost the naval facility at Massawa and our air borne units are deployed against the TPLF." Without superpower support. All Haji argues. holding Eritrea is "out of the question."
Despite the EPLFs tactical alliance with other fronts inside Ethiopia, the Eritreans argue that their case Is a distinct one and. while they may accept federation or increased autonomy as a short-term solution, the ultimate goal is Independence. The EPLF argues that Eritrea's annexation by Halle Selassie in 1962 was Illegal and that their country has never been a part of Ethiopia.
Other movements, such as the TPLF. are battling for greater autonomy — tn terms of language, education and resources within the boundaries of Ethiopia. They complain of a highly centralised adminlstra tion In Addis, dominated by Amharic speakers, which has sought to impose Amharic hegemony without bestowing any local benefits in return
The capture of Asmara would be a major step forward for the Eritrean cause, but even if the Soviet Union cuts off all military aid to the Ethiopian government, there remains the hurdle of winning international recognition for an independent state of Eritrea.
In the meantime. the people of Afabet will continue to make their daily trek to the mountains to escape the threat of air attacks, leaving the sick and elderly behind in home-made bunkers "answering useless questions' of visiting journalists as one woman put It.
And in rural areas the threat of bombing will restrict the prospects for planting and harvesting In a land already barren from drought. GEMINI NEWS
JEREMY HARDING aj'f elance British Journalist based tn London who specialises tn coverage oj Africa.