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Sanctions Conundrum Follows Scrapping of Apartheid Laws

by Derek Ingram
The historic speech
by President F W de
Klerk on February 1 set in motion the whole delicate exercise of how to use the loosening of sanctions to secure the quickest and most secure route to democracy in South Africa Resistance to lifting some sanctions will be difficult to maintain for^long
In Britain, the Gulf crisis was pushed out of the main headlines for the first time for weeks by news that the laws enforcing apartheid were to be abolished. Predictably, the Bri tish government Jumped tn first with calls for the erm of sanctions, followed quickly by Prime Minister Bob Hawke of Australia, who was anxious to see cricket with South Africa resumed as quickly as possible.
The African National Congress (ANC) no nted out that the political game was only Just beginning. The apartheid laws might be going, but blacks from Nelson Mandela downward still had no vote and 2.000-4.000 political detainees-no one is sure of the real figure—awaited release.
Nonetheless, sanctions are on their way out. The chal-tenge s to use their removal in a way that will help the blacks and the de Klerk government, to manoeuvre their way to a new constitution that secures democracy for South Africa.
Britain, which under Mar garet Thatcher put itself in the centre of the sanctions controversy. has set Its sights on the next Commonwealth summit meeting, which takes place tn Harare in October. Prime Minister John Major does not want to find himself, like Thatcher, at the centre of Commonwealth storms over South Africa.
Ever since the Nassau summit of 1985, Britain has stood apart from the other 49 member countries. When two years later the Commonwealth formed a nine-nation committee of foreign ministers of Southern Africa under the chairmanship of Canadian External Affairs Minister Joe Clark. Britain refused to Join. Now the timj for healing has arrived. Major will not want to continue the Britain versus-the-rest stance adopted by Thatcher at Commonwealth meetings. It Is not his style. Foreign and Commonwealth Secretary Douglas Hurd will try to make his peace.
In this situation the new Commonwealth Secretary General Chief Emeka Anyaoku becomes a key mediatory fig
The de Klerk speech, almost one year from the day Nelson Mandela was released, has set the stage for radical change in South .Africa. The laws to be repealed—the Land Acts of 1913 and 1936. the Group Areas Act and. most importantly. the Population Reg Istration Act—are expected to disappear by April. The last Act. under which babies are registered by race, is at the very heart of apartheid.
With these laws gone, real negotiations for a new South Africa could begin. At the moment the paths towards this goal do not meet. The anti-apartheid forces aim to hold a "patriotic conference" on March 21 to discuss strat egy. The other black parties will then come Into play with the ANC.
The ANC wants an all-party conference soon afterwards The government is iikejy to agree to this—Mandela is thought to have the nod from de Klerk—but perceptions of what should be the terms of reference differ widely. The ANC wants a constituent assembly elected that would draw up the country's new constitution. In the meantime the conference would set up an interim government to oversee the train si Hon until a new parliament was elected and a democratic government formed on the bonis of the constitution.
The government opposes elections for a constituent assembly and the Inkatha Movement led by Chief Gatsha But he tea wants a federal constitution —an idea totally opposed by the ANC Despite such fundamental differences the momentum for negotiation extols and the all-party conference could be sitting by July Optimists predict a new constitution and elections wtthln 18 months
The immediate problem internationally to how to handle sanctions. The ANC wants them kept in place as a card for their negotiations. Bitter experience has taught them to suspect white motives until words turn Into action. They have to be satisfied that the abolition of apartheid Is 'Irreversible."
That point may be near, but the detainees are still held and the vote has still to be given to the blacks. The ANC does not see why If the West really wants to help them it Is not prepared to wait a little and help their negotiations
The British are keen to give de Klerk some reward for his political bravery and are anxious to secure their traditional trading relations against the day when business prospects with South Africa begin to blossom. It has already unilaterally lifted bans agreed with the Commonwealth on new Investment. tourist promotion, and cultural and scientific links.
The British argue that sanctions arc Ineffective anyway and are having little effect on the economy The reality is rote in the dramfall of Prato dent Botha tiw raasto^^g N sanrtvX are having no Import why la there ao much
South Africa k* (hew remrseat?
The ANC haa rrroBBlaad fir some time that the time was comtng when pressure for the end of sanctions could no longer be resisted A draft die cusalon document marked confidential but circulated the ANC said ' we continue to call foe the ■MW' tenance of existing mu aw without running the risk of placing ourselves tn a pntotMi tn which are will be seen to have suffered a major defeat as
fact acts tn a manner which
Uons.
The critical objective should be that are take charge of the process of de escalation of the sanctions campaign by working out a comprehensive programme of action aimed al attaching such de escalation to the advancement of the objectives of the process of demo cratlc and non racial trans
The de escalation began on February 4 with the decision of the European Community to end sanctions when de Klerks reforms were formally tabled The British aranted immediate action but went along art th the rest of the Community.
The United States will not rush to end sanctions President George Bush cannot scant to stir Congress on the issue to the time when he hi targe numbers of black troop* fighting in the Gulf.
The Commonwealth foreign ministers deciding their position at the Ixrndon emergency meeting, are scheduled to hove a fuller meeting a month or taro later In New Delhi tn advance of the Harare summit and are unlikely to agree to any major relaxation of sanctions until they have seen the colour of de Klerk's money.
—GEMINI NEWS