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AT HOME AND ABROAD

Gulf War Casts a Shadow Over ASEAN

S. M ALI
TV T ,lh virtually no region of the world VW completely spared from a fall out of ¥ ’ the Gulf conflict, it is instructive to study how different countries are facing up to the consequences of a war almost no one wanted, rearranging their priorities and. Anally, thinking of what even six months ago would have been regarded as unlikely or even Impossible.
. In this respect, the countries In South Bast Aslan region, grouped together In the six-nation alliance, known as ASEAN, seem to be In a particularly difficult situation.
Internationally. ASEAN is regarded as a success story of regional co-operation, perhaps even an object of mild envy by countries tn other areas. However, this success Invariably obscures several Inner stresses and strains inherent in the varying sizes, economic potential, political systems, racial compositions and even external alliances of members of the grouping.
Out of the six. three—Indonesia. Brunel and Malaysia—are exporters of oil. while the other three—Philippines. Thailand and Singapore— are dependent on oil imports. However, one of them—the city state of Singapore—has one of the larges! refineries In the world. Out of the six. In donesia and Brunel are overwhelmingly Muslim. Thailand overwhelmingly Buddhist and the Philippines almost entirely Christian. The remaining two— Malaysia and Singapore—describe them selves as multi-racial. mulU-religious and even multi-cultural. However. In reality, the Islamic bias in the Malaysian life remains as strong as the Chinese accent in Singapore.
Then, what has kept the six countries together?
If one leaves' aside the Inevitable rhetoric about their shared history, cultural assimilation across their ethnic barriers and religious tolerance, their shared economic growth and their common realisation that they must work together to promote it provide two important elements in the 11 trust within the alliance.
No ASEAN leader would claim that countries of the grouping have achieved this growth entirely on their own.
Just look at the figures of these countries. Including of the Philippines which Is still seen as a sick man of ASEAN, of their trade. Investment, inflow of foreign capital and. Anally, joint ven tures, mainly with two of their most important partners, the United Slain and Japan. Then one would know where this growth, perhaps a large part of It. comes from.
In pushing the ASEAN on the road lo economic progress, the United Stales provided another supportive element: its military bases in Thailand (until the end of the Vietnam war) and the Philippines (now under negotiation). Meanwhile, talks are going on between Singapore and Washington about the city republic providing some limited base and repair facilities to the UN navy, especially if Manila terminates the base arrangement.
Until the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, the six South East Asian countries have been studying their future options with a mixture of guarded optimism and some shrewd calculations. During this study which had been going for months, the ASEAN experts have noted the decline of the Soviet military power from this region and of Its possible withdrawal from the Cam Ranh Bay. base in Vietnam; the solution of the Cambodian eonfliri and pressure from Hanoi on Southeast Asian countries to open trade and economic ties; and further liberalisation of China s economic and political policies
Now. reports from different South East Asian capita) suggest that all these Issues. Just mentioned, are being pul in the coid storage to enable the decision-makers to concentrate on one single Issue—(he fallout from the Gulf war. with alt Ito varied implications.
In one major development, foreign ministers of Malaysia and Indonesia, both Jakarta which has a history of anti Chmern riot i. ihst if the war and touche* off anti American vtoteme. big multinational US operation* would start looking towards Singapore Bangkok and Manila as their alternative bases.
Significantly enough, while Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta are anxious to dis lance themselves from the United Stal^ atieast on defence matter*, three other ASEAN members—Singapore. Thailand and Brunei (a Muslim country but closer to Singapore than to Malaysia) would like to have continued US military presence in Asia to ensure a stable balance of power", according to diplomats quoted by the International Herald Tribune
It is said that a section of leaders in the Philippines who had once opposed the continued presence of US bases in their country are also rethinking their positions in favour of the status quo.
Geographically. Iraq I* too far away from the ASEAN countries to be seen as a direct threat to their own security But these countries, especially Thailand whose sprawling capital. Bangkok Is bursting al the seams, remain apprehensive of Iraqi-barked terrorism
Taking a longer term perspective, virtually all the ASEAN countries remain deeply concerned about the process of destabilisation that has been sei In motion, first by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, then by the counter-attack launched against Baghdad by the multinational force, and Anally by the barrage of propaganda unleashed by' Baghdad The growing fear in Southeast Asia Is that if the conflict goes on much longer, the process of destabilisation may affect countries In Asia In a way that even the most astute expert may m»l l»r able lo work out In athame