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Who had the best and worst year in Asia?
Curtis S Chin and Jose B Collazo
For all of South Asia, 2020 has been a year that cannot be over fast enough. This has true for Bangladesh too, even as the International Monetary Fund’s latest Economic Outlook reported that the nation has overtaken India in GDP per capita. By year-end though, Bangladesh had also reported some 511,000 Covid-19 cases, with reported deaths of about 7,500.
Elsewhere, the ongoing economic and health catastrophe has encompassed more than 1.7 million dead globally—including more than 343,000 deaths in the United States, more than 191,000 in Brazil and more than 148,000 in India. Year-to-date deaths from Covid-19 surpassed 9,990 in Pakistan.
Yet, less than 12 months since the novel coronavirus SARS-Cov2, first identified in China, spread with deadly effect to the world, there lies hope for a better year ahead amidst unprecedented progress on vaccines and treatments. So, who was up and who was down in Asia in 2020? Here’s our annual assessment.
Worst year: Asia’s poorest
As in too many places, it is the poorest and most vulnerable in Asia who have been hit hardest by Covid-19. Across the Indo-Pacific, migrant workers in particular have suffered the consequences of economic lockdowns. The diversity of victims of the coronavirus’ economic impact has ranged from seafood workers from Myanmar in Thailand’s seafood industry, to medical glove factory workers from Nepal and Bangladesh in Malaysia.
The World Bank reports that Asia’s most vulnerable have borne the brunt of a “triple shock”—the pandemic itself, the economic fallout from the containment measures, and the ensuing global recession. Amidst collapsing tourism and weakened exports, hunger grows, and access to jobs, technology and education shrinks. The Asian Development Bank now projects that the coronavirus could push 160 million more into poverty across Asia. The region’s poverty rate will increase for the first time in 20 years, adds the World Bank.
And so sadly, it is Asia’s rapidly growing class of the “new Covid poor” who receive the depressing distinction of having the worst year in Asia.
Bad year: WHO and Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
It should have been a year for the World Health Organization (WHO) to shine. Instead, the specialised UN health agency and its beleaguered director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of Ethiopia, found themselves in a no-win situation, facing accusations of not holding China accountable for its less than transparent handling of the coronavirus.
Hidebound by the rules of bureaucracy and diplomacy, the WHO could say little as China delayed release of information, allowed millions to travel from Wuhan during the Chinese New Year period, and cracked down on citizen journalists and whistleblowers. In February, Chinese doctor Li Wenliang himself died from Covid-19 after seeking to warn others of a mysterious SARS-like virus early on.
President Trump said the US—the WHO’s largest donor—would leave the organisation, alleging that Ghebreyesus and the WHO were beholden to China. A turnaround could be at hand with a new US administration, but it’s been a decidedly bad year for WHO and Ghebreyesus.
Mixed-year: Xi Jinping and the Belt and Road Initiative
China President Xi Jinping’s successes at home so far in crushing Covid-19 and dissent in Hong Kong were tempered by growing pushback abroad in 2020 against his much touted Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
This grand “One Belt One Road” infrastructure scheme—launched in 2013 to connect some 70 countries, including Bangladesh, with a “new Silk Road” of Chinese-financed ports, railways and highways, and other projects—ran into growing pushback amidst Covid-19 slowdowns and worries about debt owed to China. This was underscored at year-end as Australia approved new laws that would give Prime Minister Scott Morrison powers to veto or scrap agreements that state governments reach with foreign countries, including a BRI project in the state of Victoria.
A 2020 Pew Research survey fielded in 14 countries including Australia, the US and several Asian and European nations revealed that attitudes toward Xi and China have now reached new lows. Seventy-eight percent of respondents stated that they had little or no confidence Xi would do the right thing in global affairs, up from 61 percent in 2019. The year 2020 was a decidedly mixed year for Xi despite, or perhaps because of, the reality of China’s engagement abroad—from conflict on the Himalayan border with India to trade tensions and disputes over the Mekong River and the South China Sea.
Good year: Asia’s e-commerce giants
The United States might have Amazon and eBay. And Bangladesh’s consumers know Alibaba platforms, but a diversity of Asia’s e-commerce giants also found 2020 to be an emphatically good year.
E-commerce in Asia was already on the rise well before Covid-19. GoJek of Indonesia and Grab of Singapore have long had well established digital payment platforms. And with the pandemic, the pace of adoption has quickened as lockdowns drove more consumers online. Statista, a Germany-based provider of market and consumer data, projected e-commerce revenues to reach two billion dollars this year in Bangladesh, and three billion dollars by 2023.
And a report from Google, Temasek Holdings and Bain and Company projects e-commerce in Southeast Asia to exceed USD 100 billion by 2025, up from USD 38 billion in 2019. All this is good news across Asia for e-commerce platforms such as Lazada, Taobao, Shopee, Shopify, Bukalapak and Sendo. Importantly, 2020 might also herald many a good year ahead as consumers build on new digital habits, from fintech to telemedicine.
Great year: Tsai Ing-wen and Jacinda Ardern
Both women won landslide reelections this year, but that’s not all that Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern have in common. These two leaders led charges against Covid-19, instituting strict lockdown measures that prevented community transmission in their countries while also avoiding the draconian practices adopted by China.
In late-December, Taiwan with a population of about 24 million had reported just 780 cases and seven deaths. New Zealand with a population of about five million had recorded about 2,125 cases and 25 deaths. Ardern has also remained unruffled during a live telecast in the midst of an earthquake, and continues to lead her nation forward amidst enduring climate change and terrorism worries.
And when it comes to economic numbers, Tsai and the people and businesses of Taiwan may well be a role model for all. By mid-December, Taiwan’s 2020 economic growth looked to outpace much of Asia’s, including that of mainland China—the world’s second largest economy—for the first time in decades.
So, in this most difficult of years, the “Best Year in Asia” goes to a dynamic duo of decisive female leaders who are showing the way to a better year ahead.
Curtis S Chin, a former US ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, is managing director of advisory firm RiverPeak Group, LLC. Jose B Collazo is a Southeast Asia analyst and project consultant at RiverPeak Group. Their Twitter handles are @curtisschin and @josebcollazo.
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (left) and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen.
PHOTOS:
AFP, REUTERS
The diversity of victims of the coronavirus’ economic impact has ranged from seafood workers from Myanmar in Thailand’s seafood industry, to medical glove factory workers from Nepal and Bangladesh in Malaysia. The World Bank reports that Asia’s most vulnerable have borne the brunt of a “triple shock”—the pandemic itself, the economic fallout from the containment measures, and the ensuing global recession.