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Adequate data needed to capture true impact of Covid-19
Rushidan Islam Rahman
The speed at which Covid-19 has spread across the globe is unforeseen and its impact in terms of health problems, lack of adequate health services and death was immediately evident.
Bangladesh, like many other countries, attempted to contain the pandemic through shutdown of normal economic activities and public life during April-May. Then the country went through the gradual reopening of economic activities.
The economic crisis following the shutdown of activities included loss of income and employment.
The government responded to the problems with announcements of transfer programmes for low-income groups and incentive packages for economic activities. Implementation exercise of these policies revealed that there is inadequate data for identifying the target groups.
The impact of the shutdown and related economic crisis has drawn attention of researchers and there have been many studies on the subject. These were based on secondary data and projections using past data.
These may be useful for short-term policy interventions when there is no scope of carrying out national sample surveys.
However, the limitations of these estimates are obvious. Many parameters have changed during the pandemic and it is difficult to take those into account.
Estimates of poverty incidence during the immediate aftermath of the pandemic have been attempted and these are based on existing data and various assumptions. The research studies and media reports have highlighted severe adverse effects of Covid-19 on employment and poverty.
Many organisations have also conducted “rapid surveys” for generating estimates of poverty and income of poor households. Rapid surveys can yield quick results and are useful for short-term policy adoption, but cannot go in-depth into the details of source of income, type of employment etc. The rapid surveys could not reach a nationally representative random sample.
Therefore immediate steps are required to generate adequate data to capture the details of the downturn of the economy and the phases of its recovery and the processes through which these cycles have taken place so that a national picture emerges. Otherwise valuable information will be lost forever. Such information may be relevant not only for present day policy making but also as historical data, which may guide future generations in their fight against economic and social downturn, especially when induced by pandemics like the present one.
The following discussion highlights the need for generation of data on employment and poverty for a proper assessment of short-and medium-term impact of Covid-19. Most of it is addressed to the national statistical organisation (BBS) but will also be relevant for other organisations who take up similar surveys.
The issues raised here can also be relevant for surveys covering impact on other socio-economic aspects of households, activities of enterprises, etc. The following discussion focuses on data on a few economic and social dimensions only and it does not form a comprehensive list.
The concerns raised here may be relevant for other developing countries, which do not have in place a regular quarterly/annual data generation system. High income countries collect monthly/quarterly and annual data on key economic indicators, including unemployment, and thus the impact of Covid-19 unfolds continuously.
Survey of labour force, employment and unemployment
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) covers more or less a comprehensive set of issues, which are considered necessary to understand the functioning of the labour market. But the coverage is adequate only in a normal situation and cannot capture the effect of a pandemic like the present one.
Therefore there is a need for reviewing the issues covered as well as the methodology that is used in the survey. Following are some aspects of labour market, which needs attention.
Loss of employment associated with Covid-19 may take various forms like work sharing and low hours of work resulting in underemployment, low productivity per person, termination from jobs, temporary loss of job, lower wage, deferred wage, denial of other benefits as provided in the country’s labour law.
Contracts in the case of paid employment may be formal and written, informal and unwritten or may take in-between forms and during and after Covid-19, the form of contract may change to worse.
Loss of employment and rising unemployment are likely to have a discouraging effect on labour force entrants, who may opt out of the labour force and join the category NEET (not in employment education and training).
The selection of a proper sample that represents the people worst affected by the Covid-19 outbreak is a must to ensure success of any government steps taken for the low-income group. The photo was taken from the capital’s Shahjahanpur.
Star/FILE
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