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Asian economic growth to pick up in 2004:WB

REUTERS, Singapore
Asian economic growth should pick up to almost six per cent next year, boosted by an improving global economy and a sharp rise in intra-regional trade based on China's rapid growth, the World Bank said Thursday.
But last month's failure of World Trade Organisation talks in Cancun, Mexico, and the slow pace of reforms were dangers for Asia, the bank said in its half-yearly report.
The bank also cautioned that Asia's policy of trying to stop its currencies rising against the US dollar had risks, saying the credit, investment and asset price boom in China raised concerns about a price bubble.
"With the quick passing of SARS, at least for the time being, clearer signs of recovery in the developed world, and healthier domestic conditions in East Asian economies, the prospects for a strong cyclical recovery and more sustained long
term growth are good," Jemal-uddin Kassum, the World Bank's regional vice president for East Asia and the Pacific said in a statement.
Economic growth in East Asia -defined as China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and some smaller economies -- would slow to 5.0 per cent this year from 5.8 per cent in 2002, before rising back to 5.7 per cent next year.
The bank's projections were unchanged from six months ago, but it said the outlook then was more uncertain, because of the SARS crisis and the Iraq War.
Elections in Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand are due in the next 18 months, and the bank said it expected them not to be unsettling but, rather, would "tend to strengthen overall political legitimacy and stability."
They was also an opportunity to speed up the pace of reform, as the
bank said slow progress on institutional and governance reform was affecting the region's competitiveness.
A risk to Asia was the recent failure of trade talks.
"International trade is the life blood of East Asia. The difficulties at Cancun might allow protectionist interests worldwide to go on the offensive, causing long term damage to the world trading system," the report said.
China was becoming more and more important for the region, and was a massive consumer of Asian exports rather than just a pure competitor to other countries in the region.
"China's imports from and its trade deficits with the rest of East Asia have also been soaring, in an almost mirror image of its surplus with the US," the report said, adding about half of the export growth in East Asia this year had been due to intra-regional trade.