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Beneath tHe Surface

Ecosystems and economic environment

Abdul Bayes
IT is heartening to note that Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in rice production over the last three decades. Reportedly, the success came despite a decline in the proportion of arable land and the dominance by the small and marginal farmers in the agrarian structure. Needless to mention perhaps that the introduction of modern high yielding varieties (MVs) had been at the pinnacle of those praiseworthy performances. But it is also being argued that the said success applies only to areas that are favourable- facilitated by infrastructural developments, such as irrigation and drainage facilities, for growing MV rice. Allegedly, the ripples of the green revolution could not reach the areas, which are generally prone to drought, submergence or flooding and coastal. In the literature relating to rice production, they are called 'unfavourable' ecosystems, as they are unsuitable for the growth of MV rice. Meantime much has been on record -- and seemingly positive -- about the impact of green revolution in favourable zones but disconcertingly very little on board relating to unfavourable ecosystems.
One might approach the issue on two counts. First, whether all that glitters is gold. That is, whether favourable rice growing regions are reaping home better income, and other benefits compared to the 'unfortunately 'unfavourable ones. Second, what kind of livelihood systems the unfavourable zones, untouched by the green revolution, have been harping on? The answers to these questions could be found from a recent research paper prepared by Drs. Mahabub Hossain, Manik Lal Bose and Alamgir Chowdhury who dealt
with the differential developments across ecosystems between 1988 and 2000. They attempted to examine the implications of a faster growth in agriculture across ecosystems. If my reading of the paper is correct, it seems that favourable zones are in no way ahead of unfavourable zones in terms of some of the indicators that we mentioned earlier and that the people of unfavourable regions developed their own style of making life 'healthy, wealthy and wise'. Allow me to clarify the points by drawing upon the study and if and when needed paraphrasing.
of them grew modern rice varieties. Surprisingly, drought prone areas devoted almost three-fourths of the cultivated area under irrigation and this is higher than the adoption of modern varieties in the dry season. This shows that drought prone areas use irrigation for nonrice crops such as fruits, vegetables in the uplands. Now the constraint to the adoption of modern irrigation apply only in the case of coastal and deep water ecosystems.
Among the unfavourable ecosystems, coastal zones have the
increasingly they are becoming viable and vying on agricultural activities, mostly non-rice activities to eke out a living.
The income from rice cultivation has been falling for all ecosystems over the years. Two reasons could be adduced to this sliding trend. First, the declining farm size and second, the adverse movement of the terms of trade. During the last 15 years or so, paddy prices increased by 24 per cent compared to about 72 per cent rise in the cost of living index. The price of labour, that is the wage rate, increased by
hoods, the authors go to argue, now depends more on what has been happening to incomes from non-rice agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The increase in income from non-rice activities was most pronounced in coastal areas followed by drought prone and flood prone ecosystems. For coastal areas the major sources of income are fisheries, vegetables and spices. In drought prone areas, wheat and fruits and vegetables emerged as prominent sources of income. But the so-called favourable ecosystem had the lowest growth in non-
Incidence of poverty
The head-count measures show improvement in poverty situation across ecosystems. Between 1987 and 2000, the proportion of the poor fell from 59 per cent to 43 per cent. In the drought prone areas, the ratio fell from 64 per cent to 45 per cent indicating perhaps that drought prone areas are no longer poverty prone. The coastal areas have the lowest incidence of poverty. Again, the least progress on poverty could be in evidence in the so-called favourable ecosystems. The findings suggest that the improvement in the economic conditions at the lower end of the poverty scale occurred more in the drought-prone and coastal areas and the least in favourable ecosystems.
Resource base
Interestingly, it could be observed that the unfavourable areas have substantially higher endowments of land than their counterpart, favourable ecosystem. For example, the average size of holding stood at 0.47 ha in favourable ecosystem where modern rice paved ways compared to 0.81 ha in coastal regions, 0.72 ha in flood prone ecosystem and 0.65 in drought prone areas. Two points need to be on board here. First, it appears that high-land man ratio and the consequent subsistence pressures forced households in the favourable ecosystems to adopt modern technology to economise on the use of land. The development of modern agriculture in those areas seems to have been distress driven. Second, the low land productivity in unfavourable ecosystems have been compensated by the higher size of average holdings to keep households on an even keel in terms of total household income. Field level data on the growth of modern rice and irrigation tend to show that in the favourable ecosystems such as in Comilla, just three years back, three-fourths of farmers had access to irrigation and four-fifths
most favourable of non-agricultural and human capital endowments. Endowments of non-agricultural capital is also high in flood prone areas but the level of human capital is relatively low. The transfer of resources from agriculture to non-farm activities was less pronounced on drought zones possibly because of the growing importance of agriculture in those areas. Thus while we heard about 'mora kartik' leading to hunger in drought prone areas,
132 per cent and price of phosphate fertilizer by 168 per cent. The absolute decline was marginal for drought prone zones but substantial for deep water and coastal areas. Three years back, rice framing accounted for only one-fifth of the household income in the coastal and flood prone ecosystems and 25 per cent in the favourable system while much large at 38 per cent in drought prone areas.
The improvement in liveli-
agricultural sources of income.
Cropping system
In the favourable ecosystem, the cropping intensity over 1988-2000 remained almost unchanged. There has been an increase in the area under MV rice -- MV rice system that is now the dominant cropping pattern. It has been achieved by replacing the system of TV rice -- fallow-TV rice system. The area under MV rice non-rice also increased over time indicating a tendency towards crop diversification in the favourable ecosystems. For the drought prone ecosystem, the cropping intensity in fact increased over the years from 156 to 172 per cent. The area under MV rice -- MV rice and MV rice-non-rice systems -- increased substantially.
In the flood prone ecosystem, cropping intensity declined. The major cropping system that historically dominated the areas under the ecosystem i.e. mixed aus-aman deep water rice followed by a nonrice crop (pulses and oilseeds) surrendered places to a single cropped boro system thereby reducing cropping intensity significantly.
Lessons learnt
The most significant findings of the study is that the areas which are favourable for the adoption of modern rice varieties has made the least gain with regard to improvement in land and labour productivity, household income and reduction in poverty. There are many factors responsible for this. However, the present need is to introduce hybrid and super rice for this ecosystem. In the flood prone zones short maturity aman variety should be developed through research to catch up with boro season. Rice-fish culture could also be a possible candidate. In the drought prone zones shorter maturity varieties and water saving technologies should be explored. In the coastal belt rice and fisheries experts could sit together to find out optimal resource allocation strategies.
Not by rice alone
The research output that I mentioned earlier point to a change in perceptions. Growing rice might not have pull up effects. In areas where rice growing is constrained, non-rice cropping system should be encouraged to reap home the benefits of comparative advantage. It is now time that we focus more on this side.
Abdul Bayes is professor of economics, Jahangirnagar University
***The present need is to introduce hybrid and super rice for this ecosystem. In the flood prone zones short maturity aman variety should be developed through research to catch up with boro season. Rice-fish culture could also be a possible candidate. In the drought prone zones shorter maturity varieties and water saving technologies should be explored. In the coastal belt rice and fisheries experts could sit together to find out optimal resource allocation strategies.***