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Energy price fall pushes Indian inflation lower

REUTERS, New Delhi
A fall in prices of some oil products nudged India's wholesale price inflation lower in the week ended April 5, and analysts said they expected a further easing of prices as the war in Iraq comes to an end.
The Commerce and Industry Ministry said Sunday that inflation in the 12 months to the week ended April 5 stood at 6.17 per cent compared with 6.24 in the previous week.
The latest figure, as measured by the widely tracked wholesale price index, was lower than a Reuters poll of 10 banks and research houses which forecast inflation at 6.19 per cent in the same week.
"The fall is essentially due to the easing of global oil prices from its earlier levels. Once the Iraqi oil hits the global market, prices would fall further," said Arun Kumar, who teaches economics at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Lower prices of naptha and furnace oil pushed the index for fuel power light and lubricants to 254.4 in the week ended April 5 from 256.3 in the previous week.
Another analyst said the fall in prices would help the central bank continue with soft interest rates as the economy
was yet to fully recover from last year's slowdown.
"Interest rates would continue to be low. It is crucial for the economy. We are still in the recovery phase and it is not strong," said M. Govinda Rao, director of the New Delhi-based National Institute for Public Finance and Policy.
Rao said the weather office's forecast of below-normal monsoon rains could push up prices if the shortfall occurs in July, the crucial month for the farm sector.
The June-September monsoon is vital for Asia's third-largest economy as farming contributes around 25 per cent to the country's gross domestic product.
Poor farm sector output was the main reason for pushing Indian economic growth to 4.4 per cent in 2002/03 (April-March) from 5.6 per cent in the previous year.
A marginal rise in food products pushed the manufactured products index up by 0.1 per cent at 151.2 from 151.1 in the previous week. Manufactured products account for nearly 70 per cent of the wholesale price index.
The index for food articles rose to 180.1 from the previous week's 178.4 which analysts said was due to the worst drought in 2002.