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War impact limited, yet to be watched

Economists make an early assessment

STAFF CORRESPONDENT
With the war on Iraq being played out, the immediate adverse impact on Bangladesh economy seems limited as only a few migrant workers had to return home.
Remittance inflow also appears to be steady, economists told a dialogue yesterday.
However, some signs of immediate export dislocation are evident. Petroleum and petroleum products related import costs are on the rise, they noted in an early assessment of the possible impacts of the Iraq war on Bangladesh economy.
Dr Debapriya Bhattacharya, executive director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), and Professor Mustafizur Rahman, research director, carried out the assessment.
The dialogue on 'The War in Iraq and Economic Implications for Bangladesh' was organised by the CPD at CIRDAP auditorium in Dhaka. Professor Rehman Sobhan chaired it.
Terming the war an unjust one, Prof. Sobhan said the main agenda of the invasion is to break up the Iraqi petroleum companies and control them.
Lawmakers from the ruling BNP, SEE PAGE 11 COL 4 FROM PAGE 1
the Awami League and the Jatiya Party, academics, business leaders and NGO and civil society representatives participated in the discussion.
Dr Debapriya said rise in oil price, increased trade-facilitation charges, possible economic slowdown in the US, UK and Euro Zone countries may aggravate the ongoing vulnerabilities of the export sector.
Prospect of participation of workers in the post-war reconstruction activities may be dim because of the alleged discriminatory recruitment practices, he added.
"Bangladesh's access to concessional overseas resources may suffer as development priorities may get significantly undermined due to the changed paradigm and resource diversion," Dr Debapriya said.
Global economic uncertainties may deepen leading to increased arbitrary treatment of trade partners. In the process, Bangladesh may get sidelined.
Mahbubur Rahman, president of the International Chamber of Commerce-Bangladesh, said world political economy and social behaviour would change due to the war in Iraq.
"As our annual remittance is over two billion dollars and around 76 per cent of this comes from the Middle Eastern countries, sustainability of foreign exchange reserve and import mostly depends on this," he added. "We have to be realistic and extremely careful in diplomatic and trade relations."
BNP lawmaker Mashiur Rahman said the government has already formed an interministerial taskforce to assess the
impact of Iraq war and identify the solutions
Referring to the kerosene issue, Awami League lawmaker Faruque Khan said the war would not dent economy and felt that the government should carefully handle the petroleum issue.
Earlier, economist Dr Atiur Rahman said foreign direct investment would be affected if threats of boycotting US and UK products continue.
Rashed Khan Menon of the Workers Party of Bangladesh said domestic factors like hartal and deteriorating law and order are the main reasons for poor foreign investments.