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An ambition misfired

A B M S ZAHUR
IRAQ, a medium sized (434,924 sq km) Islamic state since 635 AD has a population of around 23 million. Muslims constitute 97 per cent of the population and the rest (3%) are Christian and others. Among the Muslims 67 per cent are Shia and remaining 33 per cent are Sunni. Though predominantly a Muslim country it was developed by the British and the American enterprises. In fact it was modernised through huge royalty from British and American oil companies. Thus nationalisation of its oil industries resulted in great losses to the British and American companies.
The country is now ruled by one of the 'most ruthless dictators' in history through his Baath Party and few thousands of faithful Republican guards and paramilitary formation, Fidayeens. The major part of the revenue is spent on maintaining armed forces and inner circle of the ruler. Though resource wise the country is one of the richest in the world, majority of its people live in misery.
In the early sixties its government was highly pro-western. Thus both America and Britain made it the strongest military power among the Arab states. Strong western support made Saddam (ruling the country from early 70s) very ambitious. His quest for power, influence and prestige dragged him to war with Iran (control of Sat-Al-Arab river). His quest for aggrandizing Iraq led him to conquer Kuwait. Naturally enough such of his behaviour created fear among his smaller and less powerful Arab states, even Israel felt uneasy.
Adventurism of Saddam resulted in Gulf War of 1991. This war enabled US to make its presence in the Middle East more pronounced. At that time the UN could have, with the support from majority of states brought Iraq under UN supervision and it could have been converted into a trust territory, if necessary. At that stage even the majority of the Iraqis (particularly the Shia community) were, perhaps, in favour of such an arrangement.
President Clinton attempted to bring peace in the Middle East through developing better understanding between Yasser Arafat and Israel, a state created by Britain as per earlier commitment after the second World War in the heart of the Arab world. As Arab-Jews conflict is about 1300 years old creation of the state brought tension in the Middle East. It may be pointed out in this regard that relationship between the Christians and the Muslims was also not that close. In the past they fought crusades also. The Serbs never forgot about the atrocities of the Turks. Thus it is no surprise that both Christians and Jews may be suspicious and concerned about the growing strength of Muslim states, particularly the states like Iraq and Iran.
The tragedy of Twin Tower in New York on 9 September 2001 allegedly by Al Qaeda group was not only shocking for the US it was also condemned by all saner elements across the world. We do not know whether Osama Bin Laden is still alive. It appears US has lost much of its interest directly in Laden. But so far US has failed to show any connection between Saddam and Al Qaeda or Laden.
The Jew-Muslim conflict and the Muslim-Christian growing mistrust have resulted in developing closer relation between western states and Israel. USA, as the only superpower, needs direct or indirect control over critical resources of the world. Fortunately or unfortunately oil is one of the critical resources. As such the US is desperate to have her control over the Middle East. Israel, on the other hand, has to depend on strong US support for its existence and act for US when necessary. Thus closer relationship between the US and Israel is based mainly on mutual interest.
UK's present support to USA is also purely business. The British oil companies and the construction companies see Iraq crisis as an opportunity for entering into Iraqi oil industry and to participate in the lucrative post-war reconstruction programme in Iraq. However, Tony Blair could neither effectively convince his party nor majority of his EU counterparts about supporting US invasion of Iraq.
Bush administration through unilateral interpretation of UN resolution 1441 has invaded Iraq. Mr Bush has been able, as it appears, to convince the majority of the American people that Saddam is a security threat to the US and he has direct or indirect link with al Qaeda terrorist group, who are regarded as responsible for the Twin Tower tragedy.
Within a week of starting the invasion Mr Bush stated that destruction of Saddam regime would take much more time than anticipated because of unanticipated stiff resistance from the most "most desperate elements of doomed regime". However, he has assured the Americans of the ultimate victory of US-led attack on Iraq. He has tactfully
placed his proposal for an additional sum of US$74.7bn before the Congress for prolongation of war due to resistance.
At Camp David Tony Blair has discussed various matters about the crisis with Bush. He has also presented a peace plan for an independent Palestine state. He has also met the UN Secretary General to discuss about humanitarian aid for the Iraqis after the conflict is over. During his discussion with Bush it seemed that he was a multilateralist while Mr Bush more a unilateralist.
The war for the last few days has revealed a number things rather clearly. They are:
a. France has emerged as the most acceptable to Arabs. Participation of France would be essential in any UN deliberation on reconstruction of postconflict Iraq.
b. Mere depending on hi-tech arms and ammunition a conventional war cannot be won. Adequate number of forces is needed.
c. Iraq has learnt a lot about American way of warfare since 1991.
d. Common Arabs have become antiAmerican. Even the non-Arab or nonMuslim countries are showing disapproval of war increasingly.
e. It is urgently needed to reform UN. The world is being divided more into pro-US and anti-US. The differences among members of EU and NATO have become pronounced.
It is stated by US-UK alliance that one of their aims is to establish democracy in Iraq. It is a common knowledge that without proper atmosphere democracy, the most sophisticated form of governance, cannot be introduced. Truth is that Arabs are basically not politically conscious. This may be due to their long tradition of tribal culture and indifference to the concept of democracy. The US' desire of making Israel a regional power through acquiring absolute control on Arab states cannot be successful because it has become abundantly clear that the Muslim states are becoming more suspicious about US motive. They are realising the necessity of an Arab or Islamic solidarity.
Bush administration speaks of bringing peace in the Middle-East. So far we have not deciphered from US activities any indication about the reduction of suffering, conflict, denial and double standards. Instead we see the opposite. War can never bring peace. Only a reformed UN may perhaps bring peace.
A B M S Zahur is a retired joint secretary.