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impact of iraq war: Suffering for South Asia

ZAGLUL A CHOWDHURY
****South Asian countries have strong economic stakes in the Gulf region since their huge workforce is based there and sending remittances that are extremely useful for the economic and social development of their people. Obviously, the region is concerned about possible exodus of their workforce.***
THE United states-led military assault in Iraq is adversely impacting the political and, more importantly, economic conditions of the south Asian countries despite the fact that the region is not much adjacent to the site of the war. It is because south Asia has strong political and economic links with the Middle East and Gulf as much as it has with two main nations leading the war -- the United states and Britain. However, the expression "war" is not exactly appropriate here since there is a raging debate whether the American-led military offensive is more an "invasion" or "attack" than a war which brings contending sides to open hostilities. It is a scenario where the United states and two other countries -- Britain and Australia -are involved in a massive land, air and sea borne assault on Iraq which has no other option but to defend itself against the might of the only superpower of the world and other strong nations.
When a country has to face the inevitable much to its unwillingness like the present condition of Iraq against the highly advanced and superior opponents, this
probably cannot be characterised as "war". While there may be a debate on the rationale of the reasons cited by the governments of the United states and Britain for military action, there is hardly any controversy that the offensive is basically an invasion. Even though some media mainly from some Western countries describe the conflict as a "war", most across the world including the media in Bangladesh call the development an "invasion" or "attack" for the simple reason that the United states-led alliance made no bones of the fact that it would take on Iraq regardless of the approval of the United Nations.
As the last-ditch effort by the UN to avert the war failed, Washington lost no time to swing into its much anticipated measure involving more than a quarter million troops with another more than forty thousand from its principal ally Britain and about two thousand from Australia. Needless to say that Canberra's despatch of troops has come somewhat as a surprise to many as it is seen as largely going out of its ways to placate the Americans. The massive protests by the Australian people notwithstanding, the government of prime minister John Howard remains stuck to involve his country's troops in the military
operations in Iraq. Demonstrations of massive scales even in the cities of the United states and Britain give a sombre reminder that the measures against Baghdad is unjust. south Asian countries are not much in variance in calling this invasion lacking legitimacy.
There is not much difference in the approaches of the regional nations to the Iraq conflict although some are vocal in
expressing disapproval of the military actions while some others are less vociferous. Anyway, what unites the south Asia on this issue is that all countries are against the war and witnessing anti-war demonstrations. Despite close links with the United states, these countries have given vent to their feelings on the conflict. However, some governments and political parties -- whether in power or in the opposition -- have shown caution in reacting to the development despite their disapproval, understandably for the reason not to annoy much the superpower. But the reactions of the people encouraged them to adopt a more
critical position against the military offensive. After all, for countries not allied with those leading the attack it is extremely difficult to support an action that is essentially dangerous in nature and without the authorisation of United Nations Security Council.
South Asia is no exception and more so because here the mood of the people basically concerns the woes of a third world nation which
is Iraq despite the fact that not all will shed tears for its ruler whose past record is also tainted by ruthlessness and attacks on weak neighbours. But the bottom line here is the question of morality -whether only 'might is right' allows a 'regime change' which can be dangerous as a precedent.
south Asian countries have strong economic stakes in the Gulf region since their huge workforce is based there and sending remittances that are extremely useful for the economic and social development of their people. Obviously, the region is concerned about possible exodus of their workforce from the Gulf countries should the
conflict draws longer than expected. Already some people have returned to Bangladesh from the Middle East and same is the case with other countries of the area. The turns and twists of the war may cause in the fall of the flow of remittances and squeezing in the job opportunities in the Gulf.
However, some Bangladesh nationals left for the Middle East even after the break of the conflict,
which indicates that their earlier signed contract has not been annulled as yet and the allies of the United states in the region like Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain appear secure at the present stage. Other countries which are close to Washington but have not taken a total pro-American policy in the current crisis, like saudi Arabia, have huge workforce from Bangladesh and other countries of the region. such countries still are safe and the expatriates believe they would not be much affected unless the war prolongs, causing severely adverse economic reactions for these countries.
some Arab nations, like syria,
have taken strong anti-American posture in the conflict but not too many expatriates from south Asia are in these countries. As such, much of the south Asian workforce in the Gulf is less affected till now. some have started returning fearing insecurity and apprehending bad days ahead. This is still in marginal scale. But the situation may change for the worse depending on the overall war situation and
in such an event the south Asian countries will suffer heavily as all rely on their workforce in the Gulf.
Likewise, they have good number of people in both Us and Britain, where many have taken citizenship or permanent residence. The war is costing heavily on both the nations even though they are rich and can absorb the expenditures. But if the conflict takes a difficult turn and prolongs, both Washington and London will need more and more money to sustain the massive war and this consequently affect their economy. President Bush has sought 75 billion dollars from the Congress
for the war. south Asians living there may feel the pinch of the worsening economy which in the process affect their countries that benefit from their remittances.
A lingering crisis may also hit the trade and business and Bangladesh's readymade garments sector may be a sufferer in case the conflict lingers and spreads.
south Asia stands to be hit from situations both in the Gulf and the United states and Britain as a sequel to the conflict. socioeconomic conditions of these countries stand to suffer badly as a result of the war. There are other fallouts of the conflict on south Asia. The peace dialogue to resolve the longdrawn civil war in sri Lanka has been postponed due to the Iraq war as the latest round of dialogue in Japan was called off since the global focus is now totally on the Gulf. In Afghanistan, which is not exactly in south Asia but at the vicinity of this region, the Iraq war may have an influence since the outcome of the war may change the mood in the country which not long ago was given a new political look by the Americans. The Talebans are totally out but eastern Afghanistan witnessed big antiAmerican demonstration centring the Iraq war, first against Washington in the country since the
changeover effected through American military might. The success of the Us-led force will help silence such sentiments but a debacle may embolden them.
south Asia has big stakes in the current conflict centring Iraq. The region itself is often an international flashpoint since its political environment mostly remains hostile and tense. Even now the atmosphere is not one of peaceful and so much so that a planned summit of the leaders of seven nations is being delayed indefinitely because of lack of conducive conditions. Nonetheless, the situation here is not volatile for sometime past. The brutality of war is coming afresh to the minds of the people as they remain glued to the television and newspaper for update on Iraq war. This may help warring countries feel discouraged about conflicts in their own region as horrors of conflict is crystal clear. However, the nature of conflicts are different here. still, the tendencies for war and hawkish approaches may receive a back seat following the unwanted devastations of Iraq war.
Zaglul A Chowdhury is a senior journalist.