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A different war brews in backyard

A tall order waits on the economic front

STAR REPORT
As war sabers rattle in the Gulf, Bangladesh has a war on its own economic front.
With some 200,000 workers about to be ejected from the Gulf and exports under threat of slump, economists fear the war could play havoc with the economy.
Commerce Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury has said the government has already formed a high-powered taskforce to tackle the situation.
He said exports are now under threat.
Bangladesh is a leading readymade garments exporter to
the US and Europe. The item also accounts for 75 per cent of its exports.
With the war looming in the horizon, orders are already on the wane.
"Buyers have become jittery and are unwilling to issue new letters of credit," said President of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association Kazi Moniruzzaman. Shipments are also being put on hold.
Annisul Huq, one of the largest fglarment exporters, said he was to y to Canada to confirm orders for the next season. The buyer has asked him to stay put until the war
is over.
Should the war linger, it will have a devastating effect on garment exports, he said.
And if the war breeds more terrorism, as many fear, Bangladesh will be in for a prolonged downturn.
Already garment export is over 10 per cent short of the target and over three per cent behind last fiscal's performance.
Vegetable and shrimp exports are also on the rock.
"We had a small but growing vegetable market," says economist Mustafizur Rahman of the Centre for Policy Dialogue, an independ-
ent think-tank.
But this export is now at risk, he says.
A top shrimp exporter and President of Bangladesh Frozen Foods Exporters Association Golam Mostafa said April is the month for shrimp export. With the war just a hairbreadth away, buyers have lost interest.
"Export price is depleting fast," said Mostafizur Rahman. It has already dropped over 10 per cent in the last six months.
With one-fifth of workers returning from the Gulf, remittance flow will take a serious beating. This has special significance as remittance supports about 30 per cent of imports.
And if petroleum price shoots, this will have a bearing on product costs.
Many may still see a silver lining, though elusive may it be. Once the war is over, peacekeeping will be a major concern and there Bangladesh will matter. It has already earned a good name for peacekeeping and fresh demand will only make it happier.