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Poor aman signals cruel time ahead

INAM AHMED and ANWAR ALI
January and February could prove the cruellest months for the urban and rural poor because of the evolving food scenario.
Indications are there that aman is headed for a bad harvest, prompting high prices in the short term and foodgrain imports to well overshoot the target. As a result, growth will be curtailed. A bad wheat season and high international prices will only compound the woes.
The picture will be clearer in a week when harvest result becomes available.
Across the north and in some areas in the south, farmers have already reported poor harvest. Their spirit nonetheless remains high, with prices keeping buoyant belying a normal trend of lowest prices between end-December and end-January. Overall, the market has shown an abnormal upswing on the
back of the aman dip this year.
Rice prices kept creeping up from mid-December and increased marginally even in end-December.
The foodgrain production target this year was set at 28 million tonnes, six per cent up from last year's 25.9 million tonnes. Aman target was set at 11.46 million tonnes as against last year's 10.73 million tonnes and 11.25 million tonnes of the year before. And experts feel both targets were a bit ambitious as is now being proven.
Wholesalers and millers in the north are reporting a slow supply of paddy and rice, resulting in the price increase.
"It is possible that supply has slowed down due to various reasons including late harvesting because of Ramadan," said Dr Sajjad Zohir, a senior research fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). "But there are several reasons to argue
otherwise."
Between November and midDecember, the government went for open market sales (OMS) of rice at Tk 11, a rate substantially lower than the purchase price.
"This had a crowding-in effect resulting in slow off-take from the private stock. And as a result, rice price should have dropped even more, which did not happen. This is an indication that aman production has been low this year," said Dr Sajjad.
The aman shortfall would also mean a dent in the growth.
The OMS over, prices increased more rapidly and, during December 29 to December 31, the national average was Tk 12.63 per kilogram.
On the other hand, over 80 per cent of the projected private import has been realised within the first five and a half months, once again confirming the production shortfall.
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This year's target for private sector import is one million tonnes and already 800,000 tonnes have been brought in. More will come during the February-March period, which is expected to push up the total import figure to around 1.5 million tonnes.
Meantime, the government began procurement from yesterday with the stock down to 700,000 tonnes from one million tonnes. The government deems a stock of 850,000 tonnes as a satisfactory security level. The procurement might push the prices further up.
On the other hand, the finance ministry's rigid position on converting food distribution in kind to cash in the food for work (FFW) programme would also have some bearing on the future market price.
Already, 200,000 tonnes of foodgrain have been reduced from the FFW within the broad policy framework of switching over from kind to cash.
Wheat production is also looking down this year and wheat price in the international market is also quite high. The landed price is close to Tk 12.5 per kg, which is quite high.
Moreover, because of a tightened border, flow from India would also be slow. These factors together would lead to a price-hike in the short term
and the rural poor, who would be paid in cash instead of food, would be hit hard. The urban poor and the labourers would also feel the heat.
On the flip side, the farmers would benefit from higher prices of produces and be encouraged to use proper inputs.
Aman rice varieties Swarna and BR-11 are now selling at Tk 1,150 and Tk 1,100 respectively per 84-kilogram sack on local markets.
Only ten days back, the same varieties were sold at Tk 1,100 and Tk 1,050 respectively, according to market sources.
In terms of maunds, aman paddy is selling at around Tk 330, which was below Tk 300 a week ago.
Farmers blame the funky weather - too much rain first and too little thereon - for the poor harvest this year.
And local traders fear that prices might go up a little more because of 'poor supply' and because of the off season between January and midMarch.
"Growers' presence in the markets is much lower this year and the foggy weather has also slowed down the rice drying process," Abdur Rashid, a rice trader in Rajshahi's Shaheb Bazar area, said. "We could not supply sufficient rice to our clients from different parts of the country
including Dhaka, Chittagong, Comilla, Barisal and Jessore."
The situation is the same throughout Natore, Bogra, Dinajpur and Rangpur.
Daud Ali, a 65-year-old farmer of Paramandapur, cultivated aman (BR-11 variety) on 10 bighas and returned eight maunds per bigha this year against a standard of 10 maunds.
Joynal, Faruk, Abdul Awal, Muntaj and Abdur Rahim Mandal of Paramandapur and Amnura villages witnessed similar shortfall.
Arman Ali, a marginal farmer of Paramandapur who cultivated aman paddy on 10 bighas, said scarcity of water and untimely rainfall hindered output.
In Berabari of Mohonpur, aman rice grower Abdur Rashid got an average production of six maunds from seven bighas.
Rezaul Karim, deputy director of the Agriculture Extension Department (AED) in Rajshahi, hinted at a production shortfall of about ten per centin the district.
"I will not claim this year's production as a good one but it will be satisfactory as it was last year despite the fact that there was no reasonable causes for the poor production and there was no remarkable incidents of natural calamities and attack of
insects", Karim said.
He, however, blamed some of the areas in Rajshahi where there is the irrigation facilities are poor and the growers who planted seedlings in late.
The high paddy and rice prices, he said, would encourage Boro cultivation on more areas in the upcoming season.
And so, the AED has marked out 57,100 hectares for Boro cultivation villages in the upcoming season.
Rezaul expects the targeted area to cross the 60,000-hectare mark eventually.
In the immediate-past Boro season, 2.09 lakh metric tonnes of rice was produced from 55,265 hectares in Rajshahi.
Poor aman harvest in certain areas will not affect the gross production figures of the district, Rezaul said. "Rajshahi has fared better in aman production than other districts in the northern region."
At least 122,640 tonnes of rice and 70,000 tonnes of paddy are expected to be collected at a rate of Tk 1,280 per quintal of rice and Tk 840 per quintal of paddy from 16 northern districts.